Iran has broken its word. Twice. And the ink on President Donald Trump’s new deal isn’t even dry yet.
The regime agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz as part of a recently released “memorandum of understanding” with the White House. Then they reneged. Agreed again. Reneged again. The excuses change, but the pattern is clear — Iran’s word means nothing.
The latest manipulation involves ordering terror proxy Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon, then pointing to Israel’s inevitable response as justification to back out of the deal. The regime claims Israel violated the agreement by defending itself. It’s transparent game-playing designed to exploit the framework Trump signed.
“The very first bullet point of the MOU declares that the U.S. and Iran each assent to an ‘immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.’ This includes each parties’ ‘allies in the current war,’ a phrase that cuts in both directions, and very much includes Hezbollah on Iran’s side.”
The memorandum itself reads more like a wishlist for Tehran than a serious framework for peace. It offers financial incentives and carrots for the Iranians while delivering precious little in the way of meaningful concessions. The document’s vague commitments to finalize nuclear program specifics over a 60-day span remain undefined — and that provision holds the key to whether any ultimate agreement succeeds or fails.
Trump previously hammered the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal for leaving terror networks and missiles untouched. Yet per the new document, those threats are now seemingly off the table in negotiations. Iran’s terror tentacles — Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis — are awash in American blood. Leaving this festering problem unaddressed is a dealbreaker for many.
The existential threat is the nuclear program. If a final agreement forces Iran to completely, verifiably, and permanently dismantle its nuclear ambitions — removing the highly-enriched uranium Trump calls “nuclear dust” from the country or destroying it — that would be a win. But Trump downplaying the urgency of eradicating the nuclear dust, and especially signaling potential openness to the regime maintaining low-level enrichment, is worrisome.
If Iran’s nuclear ambitions are not thoroughly extinguished, it’s a bad deal.
The regime is in no position to be playing games. Iran’s major nuclear facilities are reduced to rubble. Many of its top nuclear scientists have been liquidated, along with a wide swath of leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Its missile stockpile has been massively degraded. Its capacity to produce new missiles has been decimated. Its navy is sunk. Its ability to defend its own airspace has been reduced to virtually zero. Its economy, already disastrous enough to inspire mass protests, is in complete shambles.
The regime is much worse off than it was at the outset of Trump’s second term. Those are game-changing victories that don’t get wiped out by a possible lackluster deal.
But why concede a bad deal at all? If a great — or even relatively good — agreement can’t be brokered, Trump should walk away. Declare military victory based on the destruction already inflicted, warn that any hint of rebuilding will be met with withering punishment, and keep crushing sanctions in place.
A regime that won’t operate in good faith on its singular, bare-minimum current obligation — opening the strait even when it’s clearly in their interests to pretend cooperation — is not a regime that can ever be reasonably expected to surrender a nuclear program it has coveted for decades.
Iran is giving Trump a tailor-made excuse to pull the ripcord and get out. The Hezbollah attacks from Lebanon are an explicit violation of the MOU’s very first provision. That’s a clean “out” for the administration.
The choice is clear: Walk away, Mr. President. No deal is better than a bad deal.
