Vice President JD Vance is dominating the 2028 Republican presidential field, polling a full 19 points ahead of his nearest challenger as the GOP appears poised to rally behind Trump’s chosen successor.
Vance holds 38% support in the RealClearPolitics polling average, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio trailing at 20.5%. The gap signals a clear frontrunner — and a party ready to continue the Trump-era movement with a younger standard-bearer.
Donald Trump Jr. currently ranks third with 11.8% support, showing the weight Republicans assign to the Trump name. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis places fourth at 6.6%, while Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. earns 4.2%.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has attracted speculation about a possible run, trails with just 3.4%.
The polling aggregate includes eight surveys — all but one show Vance with at least a 10-point lead.
If Rubio declines to challenge Vance, the vice president would be all but certain to clinch the nomination. The Republican primary field remains narrow compared to past cycles, reflecting broad consensus around Vance as Trump’s political heir.
Democrats Face Wider Field — And Kamala 2.0
On the Democratic side, the race is far more split. Former Vice President Kamala Harris still leads the pack, but her 11.3% advantage is barely half of Vance’s commanding margin.
Harris holds 27.9% support, with California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 16.6%. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg places third at 11.3%, while Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., earns 8.8%.
Other candidates — Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear — all earned at least 3%.
Harris’s lead is slipping compared to Vance’s clean sweep. The Emerson poll even showed Buttigieg ahead by 2%. Still, the national party may be positioning to hand Harris a boost: South Carolina — a Republican stronghold with a large Black population — will host the first Democratic primary in 2028.
Harris, who is half Indian and half Jamaican, leaned heavily into both elements of her background during the 2024 campaign. She was selected to replace Biden on the ticket at the last minute, never winning a Democratic nomination process herself.
The 2028 matchup is shaping up as a contrast in party unity. Republicans appear ready to consolidate behind Vance. Democrats remain fractured across a crowded field — with Harris trying to hold onto a front-runner status she never fully earned.
