In a surprising twist reflecting the winds of change, a recent survey reveals that Gen Z voters under 21 are leaning Republican by an impressive 11.7 points. This shift is notable, considering younger Americans have traditionally swung left.
The Yale Youth Poll provides insight into this development, indicating that voters aged 22 to 29 favor Democrats by a margin of 6.4 points.
“When asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in the 2026 congressional elections in their district, voters aged 22–29 favored the Democratic candidate by a margin of 6.4 points, but voters aged 18–21 favored the Republican by a margin of 11.7 points.”
While these young voters appear to be siding with the GOP, it doesn’t necessarily mean they align with Republican stances across the board.
The pollsters elaborate:
The survey included a range of questions on subjects from higher education to immigration to what the federal budget is spent on. The poll also implemented two A/B tests to gauge the effect of framing progressive policies as “human rights” and whether providing voters with basic information about government finances changes their views on the federal deficit, tax rates, and spending levels. The first message test found that arguing for progressive policies on homelessness on the grounds of “human rights” reduced support for the progressive position by 22 points.
The starkest generational divides emerged around immigration and protest rights. Nationwide, voters opposed allowing asylum seekers entering illegally to stay by a 2-point margin, yet young voters favored allowing them to remain by a 25-point margin. Regarding whether international students should face deportation for protesting the war in Gaza, general opinion opposed deportation by 36 points, but young voters rejected it by a whopping 65 points.
On the contentious issue of gender transition treatments for teens aged 13 to 17, those under 30 were almost evenly split, opposing it by just 0.1 points, contrasting with a broader opposition of 24 points. When it comes to campus speech, young voters supported institutions making political or social statements by 6 points, whereas the wider population opposed such statements by 13 points.
Trust in institutions and views on democratic reform among young voters also veer from older generations. They tend to believe the Supreme Court rules based on ideology or partisanship rather than sheer legal reasoning, while the general public sees the Court as basing its decisions on legal merits.
These varied positions, showing a blend of left-leaning and right-leaning tendencies, underscore a growing unpredictability in young Americans’ political alliances — perhaps a manifestation of eroding confidence in the Democratic Party.
The Yale Youth Poll conducted this survey with 4,100 registered voters from April 1 to April 3, featuring an oversample of 2,024 young voters aged 18 to 29. The results have a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points for the overall sample and +/- 1.8 percentage points for young voters.
