Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is in serious political trouble as City Councilwoman Nithya Raman threatens to pull off a New York-style upset in the mayoral race.
Like Zohran Mamdani’s surprising victory in New York City, Raman is a far-left challenger threatening to defeat the establishment-backed Bass. The parallel between the two races has not been lost on political observers who see a pattern of progressive insurgents capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with incumbents who came to power promising transformative change but struggled to deliver on key campaign promises.
Bass, who was elected in 2022 on a platform centered largely on addressing Los Angeles’s homelessness crisis, has faced mounting criticism over the persistence of encampments throughout the city and the slow pace of housing construction. Raman, meanwhile, has positioned herself as representing a more fundamental break with the status quo, despite Bass herself having been considered a progressive when first elected.
A new internal poll released by Raman’s campaign found the challenger leading Bass by five points, 44% to 39%, while 17% of voters remained undecided. Hart Research Associates surveyed 600 likely voters in early September. The poll has a four-point margin of error.
The timing of the poll is significant, coming as voters begin paying closer attention to the race and as both campaigns ramp up their advertising efforts. Internal polls are typically released when they show favorable results for the campaign commissioning them, but the specifics of the Hart Research survey suggest genuine momentum for the challenger rather than merely strategic spin.
Another survey paid for by a group supporting Raman initially showed a close race, with Bass at 38% and Raman at 37%. After voters were given more information about the candidates, Raman moved ahead by seven points, 41% to 34%. That poll had a 3.7-point margin of error.
The shift in the numbers after information was provided suggests that Raman may have more room to grow as her name recognition increases and voters learn more about her record and platform. This dynamic often favors challengers in races where the incumbent has higher initial name recognition but also accumulated political baggage.
Bass’s campaign declined to release its own polling — a telling sign when an incumbent refuses to share internal numbers.
Bass’s campaign declined to release its own polling.
In competitive races, campaigns sitting on positive internal data typically release those numbers to shape media narratives and boost fundraising. The silence from Bass’s team has fueled speculation that their own research shows a similarly tight race or worse.
An outside group backing the mayor pointed to an early August poll that put Bass ahead, 41% to 35%, with nearly a quarter of voters undecided. The same survey found Bass leading 45% to 33% after voters were presented with information about both candidates.
However, that August survey is now more than a month old, and the political landscape can shift rapidly in the final stretch of a campaign. The divergence between the pro-Bass poll showing her gaining ground after information and the pro-Raman poll showing the opposite suggests that the battle will be fought over competing narratives about each candidate’s record and vision.
The competing numbers come as Bass and Raman begin spending heavily on campaign advertising across television, streaming services, and social media. Both campaigns appear to be investing significant resources in digital platforms, recognizing that younger voters and cord-cutters increasingly consume media outside traditional television.
Raman released a Hollywood-themed ad featuring the voice of actor and screenwriter Bob Odenkirk. The commercial shows Raman visiting a taco stand and embracing a dog while presenting herself as the candidate of “change” and “affordability.”
The ad represents a deliberate effort to paint Raman as an accessible, everyday figure despite her position as a sitting council member, while the “change” messaging attempts to cast Bass as the status quo despite the mayor’s relatively short tenure in the office.
Bass responded with a digital ad focused on the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement operations. The commercial includes footage of Bass confronting federal agents at MacArthur Park in July 2025.
Bass says in the ad: “When someone comes after your family, you don’t hesitate. You stand up. You fight.”
The mayor’s strategy appears designed to remind voters of high-profile moments where she stood against federal overreach, positioning herself as a fighter willing to confront powerful adversaries rather than merely an administrator struggling with intractable local problems.
The race has emerged as a test of whether Los Angeles voters will move further left or stick with the establishment Democratic machine that has dominated city politics for decades. The outcome could have implications beyond Los Angeles, potentially serving as a bellwether for progressive challenges to Democratic incumbents in other major cities where voters are frustrated with persistent urban problems despite years of progressive governance.
LOS ANGELES POLL – MAYOR
🟪 Nithya Raman: 44%
🟦 Karen Bass (inc): 39%• Raman Internal by Hart Research
• Released todayhttps://t.co/sOvFth65Dy pic.twitter.com/VFlgcOoTeN— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 19, 2026
