The Most Accurate 2020 Pollster Makes Huge 2024 Prediction


Amid the bustling political climate as the 2024 Presidential election approaches, AtlasIntel, whose predictions were spot-on in 2020, released a new poll that places former President Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden. The data comes at a critical time as public concern regarding Joe Biden’s cognitive health and fitness for office has escalated following his debate with Trump.

For months, there has been growing unease among the electorate regarding whether Biden is capable of fulfilling the demands of the presidency. This concern has grown significantly following Thursday’s debate performance, which many viewed as lackluster compared to Trump’s commanding presence. The debate intensified discussions within the Democratic Party, with nearly half of its members now expressing their doubts about Biden’s candidacy.

AtlasIntel, whose insights have been heralded for their accuracy, conducted a poll that revealed Trump leading Biden by 5.2 points in a full-ballot estimate. This is an increase from a February poll by the same agency, which had Trump leading by 2 points.

They not only nailed the 2020 popular vote but also accurately captured the mood in 2022. Now, their data suggests a solidifying lead for Trump, placing him at 45.5% over Biden’s 40.3%, with Robert Kennedy Jr. picking up 10% of the vote as a third-party candidate.

In the aftermath of the debate, a retreat at Camp David was swiftly organized, where Biden’s closest family and advisors rallied to strategize and bolster his campaign. The meeting aimed to mitigate the fallout and stabilize his campaign which seems increasingly besieged by public skepticism and internal party doubts. However, according to AtlasIntel, 48% of Americans now believe Biden should withdraw from the race, a stark increase post-debate. Only 9.3% think there is a high chance Biden will actually drop out.

Other findings from the poll included 56.3% disapprove of Biden’s performance as President while only 39.7% approve. 52.5% said they evaluated Biden’s performance as “bad/terrible,” 29.4% said “excellent/good,” and 17.6% said “regular.”

The poll indicates a potential turning point in the 2024 Presidential race, signaling a growing appetite for change, possibly swayed by perceptions of leadership strength and clarity—a domain where Trump seems to have an edge. Now, the Democrats face a crucial decision: rally behind Biden or reconsider their strategy in light of burgeoning internal and external pressures.


In terms of topics, Biden led the most of over Trump with +14 points in environment protection, while Trump separated himself with +13 points over the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Trump has led the way in: China- U.S. competition, national debt, immigration, war in Ukraine, combatting taxes, corruption, job growth, and safeguarding democracy. Besides environment, Biden only led in two other categories: health care and inequality.

Trump continued his momentum on Monday by celebrating the Supreme Court’s ruling that grants broad immunity to sitting presidents for “official” acts. The 2024 frontrunner described the decision as a validation of his claims of being targeted by a political witch hunt led by Biden and Special Prosecutor Jack Smith. The ruling, authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, stated that presidents cannot be prosecuted for exercising their core constitutional powers. However, the court noted that non-official acts are still subject to prosecution.

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Scoop Diggins