The Pentagon is racing to catch up on battlefield drone technology after neglecting cheap, lethal systems for years — while adversaries like Russia, Iran, and China flooded their forces with tens of thousands of them.
Ukraine and Russia are deploying drone swarms by the thousands daily, fundamentally changing how wars are fought. The most common type is the first-person view (FPV) drone — a cheap quadcopter with an explosive charge strapped on, controlled by an operator wearing computer goggles.
FPV drones cost $1,000 to $5,000 and can destroy modern battle tanks. Field reports from Ukraine show it takes 10 to 20 drone strikes to take out a tank — but when battles involve a thousand drones at once, armor can barely move before getting hit.
Battlefield drone warfare has become so effective that large units and armor can barely move before they are hit.
Two major developments are making these drones even harder to stop: fiber-optic control and autonomous AI targeting.
Fiber-optic drones are controlled by an ultra-thin cable — almost invisible — that can’t be jammed or intercepted. Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas all use them. Israel faced serious problems countering fiber-optic drones until recently, when new countermeasures started arriving.
Autonomous drones rely on pattern recognition and artificial intelligence to select and attack targets without human control. They can’t be jammed, and detecting them is difficult if their AI computers mask their approach.
Russia’s AI drones are effective — and they run on American-made NVIDIA Jensen chips. Most Jensen chips are manufactured by Taiwan’s TSMC. The U.S. did a lousy job controlling exports, and now they’re all over China and accessible to bad actors like Russia and Iran. Ukrainian forces have collected Russian drones with Jensen chips inside.
Long-range drones are hitting critical infrastructure hundreds of miles away. Iran has attacked oil fields in Saudi Arabia, airports in Kuwait, and port facilities in the UAE. The Houthis fire drones at Saudi Arabia and Israel. Ukraine and Russia target each other’s refineries, airfields, and ports.
Russia copied Iran’s Shahed-136 attack drone, improved it, and began mass-producing a series called Geran. The Geran-2 is made from composite material that’s hard to track on radar. Ukraine developed interceptor drones like Zirka and Bullet to counter them, but Russia responded with Chinese jet engines that make Gerans fast enough to outrun interceptors.
Drone swarms will overwhelm and saturate enemy defenses — perhaps 10% will get through against a layered air defense system.
Both sides use cheap decoy drones in swarms to clutter radars and force the enemy to burn expensive air defense missiles. A typical air defense missile costs $100,000 to $2 million. A decoy drone is a cheap model airplane.
The U.S. built the world’s most sophisticated surveillance drones — but they’re vulnerable. Iran shot down 30 to 45 U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones during the recent conflict. Reapers cost $30 to $34 million each — almost $1.5 billion in losses.
Sea drones are an increasing threat to military and civilian ships. Ukraine’s sea drones cost about $300,000 to produce but can destroy a cargo ship or enemy warship worth hundreds of millions. Taiwan is developing its own sea drones, including the Sea Shark 800, designed to carry thousands of pounds of explosives for coastal defense against a potential Chinese invasion.
Land-based combat robots are the next frontier. The U.S. and China are pushing robotic soldier technology. The Army will seek collaborative platforms that can support armor formations and assault groups — reducing casualties and cutting costs. A well-designed robot is expendable, doesn’t eat, doesn’t need shelter, and doesn’t require medics.
Drones allowed Ukraine to hold off Russia after running out of antitank ammunition in 2022 and 2023. In the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Israeli and Turkish drones helped Azerbaijan systematically destroy Armenian-supported forces — mobile missile systems, armored vehicles, command centers, and troops.
Both Ukraine and Russia depend on China for critical drone supplies. The Russians have been unable to persuade the Chinese to stop supplying Ukraine — the business is too lucrative for corrupt Chinese firms linked to China’s ruling elites.
But wars can’t be won by drones alone. You still need land forces to seize and hold territory, air power, and heavier weapons to destroy an enemy’s ability to fight.
The Pentagon is now going all out to improve its drone capabilities, especially low-cost battlefield systems it neglected for years. The Defense Department is working hard to deploy effective drone countermeasures. Israel, facing terrorist threats and long-range drones from the Houthis and Iran, is fielding systems including lasers to counter them.
Counter-drone warfare is still in its infancy.
