The Iran War has already cost U.S. taxpayers more than $100 billion — but Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told Congress the price tag is just $37.5 billion.
Defense analysts are calling the Pentagon’s official number “totally implausible” and accusing Hegseth of hiding the real cost from the American people.
“I think Pete Hegseth has lied to Congress about the cost of the Iran War. It’s already the most disliked war in history, according to my own analysis of polling data dating back to World War II. The administration has gone really far out of its way to hide the costs of the war from the American public.”
That’s Stephen Semler, cofounder of the Security Policy Reform Institute, speaking to the Daily Caller News Foundation. Semler put the real cost at $112.3 billion as of Tuesday — 145 days into the war.
The war resumed July 7 after the Trump administration accused Iran of violating a June memorandum of understanding by attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has carried out repeated strikes across Iran, including a 13th consecutive night of attacks Friday. Tehran has retaliated against U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Iraq, according to Reuters.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirms new estimate cost for the Iran war: $37.5 billion. pic.twitter.com/rlQMz6p2jh
— CSPAN (@cspan) July 21, 2026
Hegseth’s $37.5 billion figure came during a Senate Appropriations Committee hearing Tuesday — the same hearing where he requested $72 billion in Iran War funding.
Semler didn’t mince words about the gap.
“There’s no single way to take his estimate seriously, especially because he said the war cost under 40 billion, but then he said that at a hearing in which he was justifying the administration’s request for $72 billion worth of Iran War funding. I don’t even know how to describe it really at this point … It just seems like brazen lying at this point.”
The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment.
Iraq War Playbook — Lowball Now, Explode Later
Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, told the Daily Caller News Foundation that hiding the true cost is standard operating procedure for the U.S. government.
“To understand the government’s habit of lowballing the cost of wars, consider the war in Iraq. In the Iraq War, the cost estimates initially submitted by the Bush administration were around $200 billion. That war ended up costing $5 trillion, 25 times the original estimate. Using that multiple, if the war winds down rather quickly, we are looking at a final direct cost of the Iran war in the neighborhood of at least $1 trillion.”
Ben Freeman, director of Democratizing Foreign Policy at The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Hegseth’s number doesn’t even include basic damage costs.
“$37.5 billion is nowhere near the full cost of the Iran war. Even the Pentagon’s own Comptroller admits this number doesn’t account for enormous costs, like the damage done to U.S. military bases and equipment in the region. Independent estimates by people that aren’t funded by the Pentagon or its contractors put the current costs much higher.”
On July 16, U.S. forces successfully destroyed the Chah Bahar Shahid Kalantari Port surveillance tower, part of a maritime surveillance network along Iran’s Gulf of Oman coastline used for decades by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to track and target commercial… pic.twitter.com/CgBNvgOFf9
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 17, 2026
The Iran War has cost the United States more than money. Eighteen U.S. servicemembers have been killed and over 500 have been wounded, Reuters reported, citing an anonymous U.S. official.
The White House referred questions to Hegseth’s statements during the Senate hearing.
Munitions Running Dry — China Wins By Default
The Iran War is draining critical U.S. munition stockpiles that were already low from the Russo-Ukrainian War.
The U.S. military burned through somewhere between 45% and 61% of its Patriot missiles between Feb. 28 and April 21, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies report. That’s between 1,060 and 1,430 of the 2,330 Patriot missiles in the stockpile — and that data is several months old.
Current depletion numbers are not publicly available.
Yesterday, using multiple one-way attack surface drones, CENTCOM forces successfully struck a submarine and ship maintenance facility in Iran. Three Corsair unmanned surface vessels hit the port at Bandar Abbas Naval Base, marking the first time American forces have employed sea… pic.twitter.com/bOM2kmgRxz
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 13, 2026
Freeman warned that the munitions drain is weakening the U.S. position against China.
“We’re consistently told that the reason for these historic Pentagon budget increases is so we’re ready to counter China. Yet, at the same time, this administration is waging a misguided war with Iran that has decimated our readiness for a conflict with China. We’re dangerously low on many munitions, sustainment pipelines are strained, and we’re canceling trainings because of the Iran war. All of this makes us less, not more, safe.”
Heritage Foundation Visiting Fellow and former Pentagon official Steven Bucci told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the costs are reasonable given the high-intensity combat involved, but warned they depend on how long the operation lasts.
Allison McManus, a managing director for the National Security and International Policy department at American Progress, said the war could cost $500 million to $1 billion per day when factoring in forward deployments, reserve deployments, munitions, potential damages, and fuel costs.
Last night, U.S. forces executed a large-scale precision strike on Kharg Island, Iran. The strike destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, and multiple other military sites. U.S. forces successfully struck more than 90 Iranian military targets on Kharg… pic.twitter.com/2X1glD4Flt
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 14, 2026
Stacked On Top Of $40 Trillion In Debt
Freeman pointed out that every dollar spent on the Iran War is borrowed money.
“We’re paying for this war, and any additional Pentagon funding, with Uncle Sam’s credit card. The U.S. is on track to rack up a $2 trillion budget deficit this year, which is adding to our enormous $40 trillion national debt. Just the interest we’re paying on the debt is now more than we’re spending on the military every year. So, any time we waste money on foreign wars, we’re only adding to this ticking time-bomb.”
Gabe Murphy, a policy analyst at Taxpayers for Common Sense, said the Pentagon’s estimates also exclude future indirect taxpayer costs like veterans’ benefits, additional interest on debt-financed spending, and more.
Murphy noted that the war is currently unauthorized by Congress, with President Donald Trump acting unilaterally. Congress never authorized this war, and it is far past the 60-day period during which the president contends he can legally continue hostilities.
Both congressional chambers passed an Iran war powers resolution in June. A second House measure passed 214-208 on July 23. A parallel Senate effort failed 49-47.
“The longer the conflict goes on, the more costs rise,” Freeman told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “If the conflict goes through the end of the year and if we escalate our involvement — by putting boots on the ground in Iran, for example — you could easily see costs soar into the hundreds of billions of dollars.”
