Iran’s 60-day ceasefire with the United States officially expired Monday — with the regime in Tehran showing zero signs it will surrender control of the Strait of Hormuz or abandon its nuclear ambitions.
President Trump made clear he won’t extend the failed memorandum of understanding.
“I think it seems fairly clear that the MOU collapsed prior to the end of this 60-day deadline,” Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the Washington Examiner.
“The number one Goal is, and always will be, that Iran cannot have, in any way, shape, or form, a Nuclear Weapon.”
Trump posted on Truth Social Monday morning reaffirming his red line: Iran will never be allowed to build a nuclear weapon.
He told Fox News that Iran “should put up the white flag of surrender.”
The June agreement was supposed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that once carried 20% of the world’s natural gas — and create space for a long-term nuclear deal. Neither happened.
Traffic through the strait remains choked. Iran still threatens commercial vessels. The regime believes it can simply wait out Trump until the 2026 midterms shift the political landscape.
“I think that Washington is counting on the fact that it thinks it has a way to impose enough pain so that ultimately the Iranians will say this is not worth it through the blockade and sanctions,” Kelly Grieco, a Middle East expert with the Stimson Center, told the Washington Examiner.
The Iranians are betting the U.S. “ultimately decide[s] that continuing this is neither politically nor economically feasible.”
The mullahs are playing a dangerous game.
Trump told reporters he has “no time schedule” and is “not in a hurry” — signaling he won’t be pressured into a bad deal. The U.S. military continues its blockade of Iranian ports, squeezing the regime economically while avoiding full-scale kinetic strikes for now.
But Trump has made his willingness to escalate crystal clear. When asked about potential obstacles from regional partners, the president didn’t mince words.
“If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s*** out of them.”
Iran launched retaliatory strikes against U.S. allies after Trump briefly resumed offensive operations in July. One attack on a U.S. base in Jordan killed three American service members. A fourth died days later in a controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone.
The standoff carries global stakes. The war shifted long ago from Iran’s nuclear program to control of the Strait of Hormuz — where the regime has proven it can disrupt world energy markets at will.
“We’re still in the standoff where Trump is hoping to use economic warfare on Iran in the form of U.S. blockade and sanctions to try to get them to capitulate on the Strait of Hormuz and other issues,” Rosemary Kelanic, an expert with Defense Priorities, told the Washington Examiner. “And Iran is not budging, and there’s no sign that they’re going to.”
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group — deployed since November 2025 — remains on station in the region despite reports of strained conditions aboard. Military leaders visited sailors and Marines on the Lincoln recently, pushing back on claims of a mental health crisis.
Iran’s regional proxies are testing the ceasefire’s collapse. The Houthis in Yemen restarted attacks on commercial vessels in recent weeks, threatening the Bab el Mandeb strait and worsening global energy concerns.
Meanwhile, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday as separate negotiations continue over disarming Hamas in Gaza. Israeli leaders have questioned for weeks whether the Board of Peace’s strategy can actually work.
Trump now faces a choice: accept a frozen conflict that leaves Iran in control of critical waterways, or risk escalation with a regime that has shown it will strike U.S. forces and allies without hesitation.
One thing is certain — the Iranians badly miscalculated if they think Trump will blink first.
