Republicans are leading in nine of the key Senate races that will determine which party controls the upper chamber in 2027, according to a new poll released Thursday by Interactive Polls.
The non-partisan polling aggregator shows the GOP holding leads in battleground states that Democrats must flip to regain the majority. Republicans currently control the 100-seat chamber, but Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
The Senate landscape heading into this election cycle has been shaped by the results of the 2024 elections, when Republicans secured their current majority. Now, with the 2026 midterms approaching, Democrats are attempting to capitalize on typical midterm dynamics, where the party holding the White House often faces headwinds. However, the electoral map presents significant structural challenges for Democrats, who must play both offense and defense simultaneously across multiple competitive states.
The poll shows Republican incumbents leading in five states:
- Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall leads by 5 points
- Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts leads by 5 points
- Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan leads by 2 points
- Maine Sen. Susan Collins leads by 2 points
- Ohio Sen. John Husted leads by 1 point
In Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a 4-point lead for the open Senate seat. In Minnesota, Flanagan leads by 1 point in that state’s Senate race.
These margins reflect the varied political terrain across the country. While Kansas and Nebraska have trended increasingly Republican in recent cycles, making the 5-point leads there less surprising, the closer margins in traditionally competitive states like Maine and Ohio suggest those races could still shift as campaigns intensify and advertising spending increases in the final stretch.
The poll also shows tied races for the open Michigan and New Hampshire Senate seats — two critical battlegrounds where neither party has established a clear advantage heading into the final weeks.
Open seat races typically generate the most competitive contests, as neither party benefits from incumbency advantages. Michigan and New Hampshire represent different regional battlegrounds — the former a Rust Belt state that has swung between parties in recent presidential cycles, and the latter a New England state with a history of independent-minded voters who have elected both Republicans and Democrats to statewide office.
With 33 Senate races on the ballot this year, Democrats face an uphill climb to retake the majority. The party must defend seats in competitive states while simultaneously flipping Republican-held seats in hostile territory.
The mathematical challenge facing Democrats is compounded by the specific seats up for election this cycle. Senate races operate on staggered six-year terms, meaning the composition of seats being contested varies significantly from one election to the next. This particular cycle features a map that requires Democrats to execute a nearly flawless strategy across multiple fronts.
Democrats need to win a net total of four seats to retake control of the chamber.
Interactive Polls aggregates polling data, prediction markets, and election results from multiple sources. The poll was released as early voting begins in several key states.
The timing of this poll is particularly significant, as it captures voter sentiment at a critical juncture when early voting infrastructure begins activating and campaigns enter their final phases. Polling at this stage often provides a more accurate snapshot than earlier surveys, as voters become more engaged and undecided voters begin solidifying their preferences.
The Michigan and New Hampshire races remain the most unpredictable, with both sides pouring resources into those states. Meanwhile, Republicans appear to have built durable leads in traditionally GOP-leaning states like Kansas and Nebraska, while holding on in swing states like Ohio and Iowa.
The resource allocation by both parties reflects strategic calculations about where limited campaign funds and organizational energy can have the most impact. Competitive races in Michigan and New Hampshire are likely to see saturated advertising markets and intensive ground game operations, while Republican efforts to maintain leads in Ohio and Iowa will test whether their margins can withstand a potential late Democratic surge.
The outcome of these nine races could determine not only Senate control but also the trajectory of the Trump administration’s legislative agenda through 2028.
Senate control has far-reaching implications beyond legislation, extending to judicial confirmations, cabinet appointments, and the ability to conduct oversight and investigations. The party that controls the chamber sets committee chairmanships, determines which bills receive votes, and shapes the national political conversation heading into the 2028 presidential election cycle.
Senate Polling — Co/Efficient (R)
🔴 Kansas – Marshall +5
🔴 Nebraska – Ricketts +5
🔴 Iowa – Hinson +4
🔴 Alaska – Sullivan +2
🔴 Maine – Collins +2
🔴 Ohio – Husted +1
🟡 New Hampshire – Tied
🟡 Michigan – Tied
🔵 Minnesota – Flanagan +1— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 8, 2026
