Maine’s Republican Senate incumbent is facing a tightening race that’s turning into a referendum on President Donald Trump, according to a new Fox News poll released Wednesday.
Democrat Troy Jackson leads GOP Sen. Susan Collins by 2 percentage points, 48-46%, in the latest survey — well within the margin of error. The narrow advantage mirrors the race’s dynamics from June, despite a major change in the Democratic ticket.
Collins has represented Maine since 1997, winning her fifth term in 2020 by nearly 9 points. This year’s race looks dramatically different.
More than half of Maine voters — 55% — say they’re concerned Collins’ voting record aligns with President Trump too often. By contrast, just 43% worry Jackson is too close to the democratic socialist movement.
“Replacing Platner with Jackson has allowed two other factors to assert themselves — opposition to President Trump and a desire for change.”
That 12-point gap reveals the core challenge for Collins. Among independents, the margin is even wider: 14 points more are worried about her Trump ties than Jackson’s progressive alignment.
Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from Allagash and former Maine Senate president, replaced Graham Platner as the Democratic nominee in July after Platner withdrew amid an assault allegation.
The candidate swap has reshaped the race into a clear anti-Collins vote. A full 61% of Jackson supporters say they’re voting mainly against Collins — up from 48% when Platner was the opponent. Only 36% say they’re voting for Jackson.
For Collins, the numbers flip. 71% of her backers say they’re voting mainly for her, up from 53% in June. Just 27% are voting against Jackson.
Among the subgroup of voters who rate themselves a 10-out-of-10 on certainty to vote, Jackson’s edge grows to 4 points (50-46%).
Roughly 9 in 10 partisans back their respective candidate, while independents narrowly prefer Jackson. Women favor Jackson by 4 points; men are evenly divided.
Compared to Platner’s June numbers, Jackson holds steady with women, college-educated voters, and suburban voters — while making gains among voters under 45 (12 points better than Platner). Collins’ previous 10-point advantage among men has evaporated.
MAGA Republicans overwhelmingly back Collins, but that drops to three-quarters among non-MAGA Republicans. Nearly one in five non-MAGA Republicans back Jackson.
Collins is the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024. Vice President Kamala Harris won Maine by 7 points. Trump’s personal favorable rating in the state is underwater by 20 points (39% favorable vs. 59% unfavorable).
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate.
Inflation remains the top issue, with one-third saying it will be the most important factor in their Senate vote. Other priorities include immigration, healthcare, and political divisions.
Part of Jackson’s lead is built on the support of the 4 in 10 voters who say they’re falling behind financially — where he leads by 29 points.
Collins’ favorable rating is now underwater by 10 points (44% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable) — more negative than in June when her ratings were underwater by just 3 points. Jackson’s favorable rating is positive by a single point (47% vs. 46%).
Voters who hold negative opinions of both candidates prefer Jackson by 3 points. Those viewing both major parties unfavorably back him by 22 points.
Nearly 3 in 10 voters say their Senate preference could still change. By an 8-point margin, more Collins supporters say their choice is locked in. One in five Jackson supporters say they may change their mind before voting.
The Fox News Poll was conducted August 6-10, 2026, with 1,000 Maine registered voters. The margin of sampling error is ± 3 percentage points.
