Democrats start the 2026 midterms just seven seats short of the 218 they need to flip the House — but Republican redistricting wins could hand the GOP a dozen banked seats before a single vote is cast.
That’s the bottom line from Fox News’ latest House Power Rankings, which show Democrats leading in 211 races with 16 toss-up districts poised to decide control of the chamber.
The president’s party has lost an average of 25 House seats in Trump-era midterm elections. Given that Democrats only have an edge on the generic ballot and in party affiliation, they look on track for an “average” night — except for one major variable.
Republican-controlled state legislatures redrew district boundaries to bank about a dozen seats, with up to nine of those coming from Florida and Texas alone.
“Republican redistricting wins change that calculation. The GOP is likely to bank about a dozen seats from new district boundaries.”
Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom scored his party three to five seats after voters approved his gerrymandering referendum in California, but overall, the GOP won the redistricting battle in what Fox News called a “forever war.”
The result: Democrats need to win more than a handful of toss-up races to flip the chamber. Republicans, meanwhile, have enough room to maintain control on a good night — and could even expand their slim majority if toss-up races break their way.
New York’s 17th district — the Hudson Valley seat that voted for Kamala Harris by 0.3 points in 2024 while electing Republican Mike Lawler by 6 points — is the quintessential median district. Democrats recruited moderate combat veteran Cait Conley, one of the top 10 fundraisers in competitive districts this quarter. Lawler has Trump’s endorsement but disagrees with him at times, including over a bipartisan housing bill. Fox ranks it Lean D.
Pennsylvania’s 7th district offers a clear test: can Democrat Bob Brooks, a local firefighter endorsed by both Gov. Josh Shapiro and Bernie Sanders, appeal to White working-class voters who have swung toward the GOP during the Trump era? He faces Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, the Republican who flipped the district in 2024. Pennsylvania is tied with California for the largest number of highly competitive House districts — four across the state, all on the east side. The 7th is rated a toss-up.
North Carolina’s 1st district got the Republican redistricting treatment last year — fewer Black voters, redrawn lines. Rep. Don Davis, a moderate Democrat whose home was moved out of the district, is still running there. He faces retired Army Colonel Laurie Buckhout, a pro-Trump conservative leaning into her military experience. Both candidates raised $1 million last quarter. Fox rates it a toss-up.
Alabama’s 2nd district is a Likely R pickup after the Supreme Court’s April ruling narrowed a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. Gov. Kay Ivey restored the original map; White voters now make up nearly two-thirds of the district. Rep. Shomari Figures, the Democrat who flipped the seat in 2023 after a federal court ordered higher Black population, is still running — but he’s likely to face Trump-endorsed state Rep. Rhett Marques in November. The National Republican Congressional Committee is investing heavily.
“Making a blue district more Republican means making a red one less Republican.”
Florida’s 14th district shows the delicate balance of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ new map. Under its new lines, the district would’ve voted for Trump by 11 points in 2024 — but incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor has $1.5 million cash on hand, support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and no Republican competitor yet. Given Florida’s rightward drift, it would usually start as a likely GOP pickup. Not this year. Fox rates it Lean R.
The full governor’s forecast drops tomorrow, with rankings for Iowa, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and 30 other states.
