NBC election analyst Steve Kornacki provided a thorough breakdown of President-elect Trump’s massive electoral gains among key demographics and deep blue strongholds, both of which were key to the first popular vote victory for a Republican presidential candidate since 2004.
Kornacki began by going over the few data points that benefited Democrats in 2024, of which there were few. Since Trump cam onto the scene, the party has managed to secure a four-point shift among white voters, an 11-point shift among those with a college degree, and a massive 15-point swing among Americans who make more than $100,000 per year. Republicans carried the wealthy demographic by 10 percentage points prior to 2016, though they now back Democrats by five, representing the Trump GOP’s shift to a multi-ethnic, working class coalition.
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In what was perhaps the most shocking result of the 2024 campaign cycle, President-elect Trump secured historic gains in several blue states. In New Jersey, the Democrat margin of victory went from 16 percentage points in 2020 to just about five in 2024, leading some political analysts to label the Garden State as a potential battleground going forward.
The trend held across the Northeast and New England, as the Democratic Party’s margin in New York was just about cut in half, dropping from D+24 in 2020 to D+12 on Tuesday. Maryland also shifted nine points in Trump’s direction, as did Massachusetts, while Connecticut and Rhode Island each shifted by about seven percentage points.
California also shifted 11 points to the President-elect, keeping in line with trends observed during the 2022 midterm elections, which were also observed in New York and New Jersey.
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“Trump swept the battlegrounds, but the other big story this week has to do with the popular vote and how Trump pulled that off. Here’s one answer. Big blue states with very diverse populations. This new coalition that Donald Trump’s assembled, it meant that he didn’t win any of these, but he made some giant strides,” Kornacki said of the Trump coalition’s demographic breakdown.
“Go down this list and look inside those states and you’ll see it. Blue collar areas, cities, metro areas with large Hispanic populations, that’s where Trump made his big gains there.”
Kornacki also put Trump’s significant gains in battleground states in perspective. In 2008, Barack Obama carried Wisconsin with 56.2 percent of the vote compared to just 42.3 percent for Republican nominee John McCain. Obama’s victory was powered by significant gains among working class, blue collar counties in the Badger State, all of which flipped to Trump’s column by 2024.
“It’s left the Democrats relying more than ever on areas like Madison, Wisconsin, Milwaukee County, areas that have large populations of voters with college degrees, of higher income voters, of progressive voters. In this election, Kristen, it just wasn’t enough for the Democrats to lean on that when they’ve lost so much ground with blue collar voters elsewhere,” Kornacki told Meet The Press host Kristen Welker.
“Steve, it is just striking to look at that map of Wisconsin and frankly all the results that you laid out,” Welker said in reaction to the map.
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