Democrats are launching a desperate new strategy to win Senate control, targeting deep-red farm states like Iowa, Nebraska, and even Kansas. Their game plan: turn economic pressure on farmers into votes against Trump.
It’s not working.
With Maine and Michigan slipping away, Democrats are betting on the American plains. They’re hoping Trump’s tariff policies and rising fertilizer costs will turn farmers blue — ignoring the fact that these same farmers overwhelmingly still back the president.
Republicans remain favorites to hold Senate seats in Iowa and Nebraska, though prediction markets put GOP odds in the 60-70% range in each state. Cook Political Report moved Iowa to “tossup” status, while Nebraska and Kansas remain “Likely R.”
The economic squeeze on farmers is real. Nebraska and Iowa rank among the top five soybean-producing states, and both traditionally sold over 50% of their crop to China. China’s 13% import duty on soybeans — retaliation for Trump’s tariffs — allowed Brazil to overtake the United States as China’s top supplier last fall.
Fertilizer costs have surged 84.1% in the last two years, worsening since the Iran war began. The American Farm Bureau reported Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose 46% in 2025. A May 2026 Fox poll showed Trump’s rural support slipping into negative territory.
Yet most farmers aren’t budging.
“As farmers because of tariffs we are hurting, however, for the long term if something doesn’t happen the country is going to fall. He’s trying to make changes for the better.”
That’s what one Nebraska farmer told The Daily Wire. A southern Illinois farmer agreed, saying farmers aren’t about to start voting Democrat just because times are tough.
“Under both the Biden and Trump administrations, we’ve dealt with low grain prices alongside higher diesel costs,” the Illinois farmer said. “The difference today is that fertilizer costs are higher than they were under the last administration, but we’ve also received some relief through the Big Beautiful Bill’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. It’s not a cure-all, but it does help offset some of the pressure farmers are facing.”
NBC interviewed 13 Iowa farmers and found that while many were struggling with rising costs, the majority said they don’t regret supporting Trump.
“It’s going to get ugly for a while, but in the long run, it’s going to help us,” one farmer told NBC. “Trump is the first president we’ve had in a long time that will stand up to China, because China just runs all over us.”
The White House is fighting back. Spokesperson Anna Kelly said Trump is “helping our agriculture industry by negotiating new trade deals, lowering input costs, bolstering the farm safety net, doubling the death tax exemption, ending taxes on rural property loan interest, creating rural opportunity zones, and more.”
The administration launched OnlyFarms, a federal platform with an interactive map that lets farmers calculate projected savings from Trump’s agricultural agenda. In March, Trump invited hundreds of farmers and ranchers to the White House, speaking from a balcony overlooking a gold-painted tractor.
“You once again have a true friend and champion in the Oval Office,” Trump told them.
Democrats are still pushing. Chuck Schumer recruited moderate-sounding nominees in Iowa and Kansas, and in Nebraska, the party is backing an independent candidate to dodge the toxic Democrat brand.
But there’s one major problem: the DNC is broke, and the RNC is flush with cash. More battlegrounds mean Democrats need more money — money they don’t have.
Farmers may be hurting, but they’re not abandoning Trump. Democrats are learning the hard way that heartland voters know the difference between short-term pain and long-term strength.
