Three separate polls released in the last week show Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton trailing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the Texas Senate race — a stunning reversal in what should be one of the GOP’s safest seats.
The Fox News poll found Talarico leading Paxton 51% to 48% among registered voters. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of likely voters showed Talarico ahead 45% to 40%, while the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll had Talarico leading 47% to 45%.
All three results fall within or near the margin of error. But the consistency of the findings has forced Republicans to confront an uncomfortable reality: Paxton is not beginning the general election with the overwhelming advantage traditionally enjoyed by Republican nominees in Texas.
President Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but Paxton has struggled to replicate that strength.
The central challenge for Paxton isn’t simply convincing undecided voters — it’s repairing the fractures created during a bitter Republican primary against longtime Sen. John Cornyn.
Paxton defeated Cornyn after receiving Trump’s endorsement, but the contest exposed a deep divide inside the Texas Republican Party. Cornyn, a longtime Senate leader with strong support among establishment Republicans and major donors, was defeated despite millions of dollars in outside spending aimed at stopping Paxton.
That division has carried into the general election.
Several prominent Republican donors who supported Cornyn have been slow to fully embrace Paxton’s campaign, creating concerns that the nominee may lack the financial resources necessary to define Talarico before Democrats define him first. Talarico, meanwhile, has built a significant fundraising operation, raising tens of millions of dollars as he attempts to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win statewide office in Texas.
The polling suggests Paxton’s personal image remains one of his biggest liabilities.
The Fox News survey found 59% of Texas voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character necessary to serve in the Senate, compared with 47% who believe Talarico is too extreme. Even among Republicans, 36% expressed concerns about Paxton’s character.
The TPOR poll found Paxton with the worst favorability rating of any major figure tested — 33% favorable and 46% unfavorable. Talarico held a net positive rating, with 43% favorable and 31% unfavorable.
The Barbara Jordan survey showed a similar dynamic: 39% of likely voters viewed Paxton favorably compared with 57% who viewed him negatively. Talarico was more evenly rated at 46% favorable and 47% unfavorable.
Paxton’s supporters argue his personal numbers are less important than the ideological contrast between the two candidates. The Fox News poll found roughly eight in 10 supporters of both candidates said their vote was primarily about where the candidates stand on issues rather than their personal qualities.
Republicans have already begun attacking Talarico over his past statements and positions on issues including transgender policy, immigration, religion, and healthcare.
But Talarico enters the general election with advantages of his own.
The TPOR poll found voters trusted Talarico more than Paxton on the issue dominating many voters’ concerns: affordability. 44% of respondents said the cost of living was among their top priorities heading into 2026, and voters trusted Talarico over Paxton by nine points when asked who they trusted more to lower costs and improve Texans’ financial situations.
The Democratic candidate has performed strongly among independents — leading Paxton 43% to 23% in the TPOR survey and 63% to 23% in the Barbara Jordan poll.
The demographic breakdowns have similarly raised concerns for Republicans. Texas Republicans have historically relied on overwhelming margins among rural white voters to offset Democratic strength in urban areas and minority communities. But the latest surveys suggest Paxton’s advantage among white voters is significantly smaller than recent Republican nominees.
The Barbara Jordan poll found Paxton leading among white voters by 14 points, 53% to 39%. That compares with Trump’s 33-point advantage among white voters in Texas in the 2024 election.
The same survey found Talarico leading among Hispanic voters by 19 points, 57% to 38%, while Fox News found Talarico ahead among Hispanic voters by 18 points. The shift among Hispanic voters is particularly significant because Texas Republicans had hopes that gains could be made with the demographic after Trump won Hispanic voters in Texas narrowly in 2024.
Despite the warning signs, Republicans remain confident the race can be stabilized. Republicans have controlled every statewide office for more than three decades, and the Fox News poll found the Republican Party holding a higher favorability rating than the Democratic Party statewide.
For Republicans, the path forward is clear but difficult: unite the party, rebuild donor support, and convince voters that Talarico represents a Democratic agenda they do not want in Washington.
Election Day is three months away.
