Poll – Right Patriots

Americans end 2024 with grim economic outlook: AP-NORC poll

Right Patriots — Tue, 17 Dec 2024 20:19:00 +0000

WASHINGTON (AP) — The unemployment rate is healthy and the stock market is up, but Democrats are feeling more pessimistic about the U.S. economy after Donald Trump’s election victory, according to a new poll.

Republicans, meanwhile, are still dour about the current state of the economy but hopeful that growth will be stronger next year when Trump returns to the White House as president.

The latest survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research suggests that some Americans are evaluating the economy more by who holds political power than on what the underlying trends suggest. This was a persistent challenge for President Joe Biden that Trump appears to be inheriting — and it raises the possibility that Trump, too, might struggle to translate his economic policies into political wins.

About 7 in 10 U.S. adults rate the country’s economic state as very or somewhat poor, up slightly from about 6 in 10 in October. Self-identified Democrats are primarily driving the recent negativity. About 6 in 10 Democrats described the U.S. economy as “good” in October. With Republicans on the verge of controlling the executive and legislative branches, only about half of Democrats say that now.

“Next year, if Trump gets his tariffs, prices are going to go up and things are going to be more costly,” said Karen Claussen, 77, who lives in suburban Columbus, Ohio, and voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in November’s election. “I don’t see any hope right now. No, I’m very worried.”

The long-standing pessimism about the economy reveals a disconnect between the traditional measures used to judge performance and how people are feeling.

The unemployment rate is a healthy 4.2% as hiring continues to be solid. Inflation has fallen from its 2022 peak, yet progress has stalled in recent months. The stock market was already up under Biden and has further increased since the election in anticipation of Trump’s promised tax cuts and efforts to curb regulations.

Perhaps because the poll was conducted with Biden still in office, just 16% of Republicans say the nation’s economy is good right now. But they see positive change on the horizon: About 7 in 10 Republicans say 2025 will be a better year than 2024 for the U.S. economy.

In the November election, AP VoteCast indicated that voters favored Trump in large part because of dissatisfaction over inflation, a global phenomenon coming out of the pandemic that raised prices for groceries, gasoline, cars and housing.

The new AP-NORC poll shows about one-third of Americans say they are “extremely” or “very” concerned about their ability to afford groceries over the next few months. About 3 in 10 are highly worried about being able to afford holiday gifts, gas or electricity.

“Right now, it’s Christmas time, and we’re struggling to make sure our son has Christmas this year,” said Jeremie Spratley, 39, from Westland, Michigan.

Spratley is on disability, and he said his family is getting less in food aid at a time when affordability has become a problem. He voted for Trump even though he thinks the former president cares more about the wealthy than about people like him.

“I know that he’s not looking out for the poor people like me, but even if it trickles down, that will be a benefit,” Spratley said.

People in households earning $50,000 or less are also more likely to be concerned about affording their basic needs and year-end expenses, compared with those with higher incomes. About half of those with a household income below $50,000 are worried about being able to pay for groceries, and about 4 in 10 say the same about buying gas, electricity or holiday presents.

Among Republicans who already hold a negative view of the economy, about 7 in 10 expect next year to be better. Only about 4 in 10 independents who see the economy as weak say it will improve. And about 1 in 10 Democrats who currently think the economy is weak say it will advance next year.

It’s common for some Americans to shift their views about the economy after a new president takes office.

For example, Democrats’ view of the economy dramatically improved between December 2020 and February 2021, after Biden took office. Only 15% of Democrats at the end of 2020 rated the economy as “good,” but that jumped to 41% by February. Over the same period, Republicans’ views dropped from about 7 in 10 saying the economy was in good shape to 35%. The topline view stayed the same, and independents did not shift their views significantly.

Beyond a series of bold and brash statements, it’s unclear which policies Trump would prioritize in hopes of helping growth.

He has threatened universal tariffs against partners such as Canada and Mexico, as well as geopolitical rivals such as China, unless those nations conduct their policies on trade, immigration and other matters to his liking. He would also like to renew and expand parts of his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire, but that could incur a higher level of debt that could hinder growth.

But for voters like Benjamin Lebert, 41, what matters is that Trump marks a change from the current administration. The resident of Roanoke, Virginia, voted this year for Trump, after not doing so previously in 2016 or 2020.

“With Trump in office, maybe new things will happen to America that weren’t happening under Joe Biden,” Lebert said.

___

The poll of 1,251 adults was conducted Dec. 5-9, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points

Poll Shows Americans Overwhelmingly Approve Of Trump’s Top Agenda Item

Right Patriots — Tue, 17 Dec 2024 10:13:01 +0000

A significant majority of Americans appear to back one of President-elect Donald Trump’s cornerstone policy proposals, signaling more public support as he prepares to return to the White House. According to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey, a sweeping consensus has emerged around Trump’s campaign promises, suggesting the political winds may be shifting in his favor.

The survey reveals that 54% of the public are “comfortable and prepared to support” Trump as president. According to the findings, 60% believe that deploying the military to the border to halt illegal drugs and human trafficking should be an immediate priority for the new administration in 2025. An additional 13% agree it should be addressed, but later in the term. Only 24% are completely against the proposal, including 51% of Democrats, 12% of independents, and 3% of Republicans.

via CNBC

The survey found that Trump’s economic agenda—focused on deregulation, tax cuts, and restoring American manufacturing—resonates with the public. Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research and the Democratic pollster for the survey, noted a shift in public sentiment from 2016. “In 2016, there were a few more people who said, ‘I’m not sure,’ and took a kind of a wait-and-see approach,” he said. “Those numbers have dropped by half or more … People know what to expect with Donald Trump now.”

The survey revealed support for several policies, including reducing individual taxes, increasing deportations of undocumented immigrants, downsizing government operations, expanding oil drilling on federal lands, and easing taxes and regulations for businesses. The idea of raising tariffs received tepid support, with only 27% in favor of immediate action and 24% suggesting it could be addressed later in the term, against 42% opposition.

via CNBC

Americans are more optimistic about the economic prospects under Trump’s second presidency than they were during his first term. A notable 51% of respondents expect their personal financial situation to improve, a 10-point increase from 2016. 51% anticipate the U.S. economy will also get better, rising 5 points from the previous election.

As President Joe Biden exits office, public sentiment towards the economy remains largely negative. Only 25% of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, while a significant 73% view it as fair or poor. Biden’s final economic approval stands at 36%, with 58% disapproving. His net approval rating has slightly improved from the lowest point in 2022 but remains negative at -22, a sharp decline from the +5 net positive at the start of his presidency.

Looking ahead, there’s a surge in economic optimism, primarily fueled by Republican enthusiasm following the election. Forty-six percent of Americans now believe the economy will improve over the next year, up nine points since October. This shift is largely driven by Republicans and, to some extent, independents moving from pessimism to optimism. Conversely, 33% think the economy will deteriorate, a rise of 16 points, reflecting increasingly pessimistic views among Democrats.

via CNBC

Forty percent of respondents believe now is a good time to invest in stocks, marking the most positive sentiment since 2019. This is a significant shift from Biden’s administration when opinions on stocks ranged from neutral to deeply negative. The change is largely attributed to Republicans, who, following the election, have become 56 points more positive about investing in stocks compared to their views in August.

Meanwhile, the survey highlights that while cryptocurrencies are generating buzz on Wall Street, they haven’t quite captured the same enthusiasm on Main Street. Currently, only 13% of Americans report owning cryptocurrency, and 15% view it as the best investment choice, a slight increase of 4 points from the last time this question was posed in 2022. However, crypto still lags behind more traditional investments like real estate, stocks, gold, and savings accounts in terms of popularity.

(FREE GUIDE: Trump’s Secret New “IRS Loophole” Has Democrats Panicking)

NEW: Trump Campaign Shares Encouraging Data After RFK Endorsement, Gains In All Swing States

Scoop Diggins — Sun, 25 Aug 2024 11:26:08 +0000

The Trump Campaign believes that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement will provide a massive boost in swing states, citing internal polling data.

In a “confidential” campaign memo shared by Trump advisor Chris LaCivita, the Trump Campaign shared data showing former President Trump gaining in every swing state, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple,” LaCivita said.

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Data obtained by Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio found the highest share of RFK voters going to Trump in Nevada, where 66 percent of respondents expressed support for Trump in the aftermath of the endorsement. The trend continued in North Carolina, where 58 percent of Kennedy voters said they plan on voting for Trump, while 53 percent of respondents said the same in Arizona.

Trump is experiencing his biggest net gains among Kennedy voters in Nevada (50 percent), Wisconsin (30 percent) and Arizona and Arizona (25 percent). The margins are tighter in additional swing states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Trump is receiving a net gain of 13 percent among Kennedy voters. The margin is the highest in Michigan, where Trump is receiving a net gain of just two percent.

In total, 66 percent of would-be RFK voters in the Trump Campaign’s most recent round of internal polls back Trump with Kennedy out of the race, while 16 percent said they will now back Harris. The rest remain undecided.

“To put these numbers into perspective, the net vote gained in a states like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin or in Georgia the net gain. would be over 19,000 votes nearly twice Biden’s margin,” the memo reads.

After suspending his campaign and endorsing the former president on Friday, Kennedy joined him for a rally in Glendale, Arizona on Friday night.

While flanked by the former independent candidate, Trump vowed to form a committee tasked with releasing the remaining records relating to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He also announced that Kennedy will be heading up a presidential committee tasked with investigating the causes and potential treatments for chronic diseases.

BREAKING: This Is The Handshake That Will Collapse The Western Economy)

NEW: Poll Finds Republicans Have Great Chance To Retain House Majority

Scoop Diggins — Fri, 23 Aug 2024 09:34:14 +0000

A new poll from Rasmussen Reports found Republicans leading by five percentage points in a generic congressional ballot. The poll, which was released Wednesday, comes as Republicans hope to maintain and expand their slim House majority in November.

If congressional elections were held today, 48 percent of likely voters indicated that they will vote for a generic Republican candidate, while 43 percent expressed support for the Democratic Party, according to the survey results. The margin remains unchanged from May, when Republicans led with 47 percent of the vote to 42 percent.

Republicans are benefiting from a whopping 19-point advantage among independents, Rasmussen found. Exactly half of independents surveyed expressed support for the Republican Party, while just 37 percent said the same for the Democrats. An additional 19 percent indicated that they will be voting for “some other candidate” or were unsure.

When breaking down results by gender, Republicans hold an advantage with men by an eight-point margin. The results among women produced a virtual tie, with 45 percent of respondents expressing support for the Republican Party and 44 percent for the Democratic Party. “In May, the gap was significantly wider, with men favoring the GOP by an 11-point margin while women voters narrowly preferred Democratic candidates for Congress,” Rasmussen noted.

When breaking down the results for income bracket, those in the highest bracket who earn more than $200,000 per year favor Democrats by a ten-point margin. Republicans by 19 points among those who make between $30,000 and $50,000.

Republicans also held a five-point advantage ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, according to Rasmussen’s generic congressional ballot survey. The GOP ended up with a slim, nine-seat House majority in an election that ultimately proved disappointing. While Republicans did secure a majority and saw massive gains in blue strongholds like New York and California, Democrats performed well in swing districts.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)

BREAKING: New General Election Poll Shows Trump Re-Taking Lead Over Kamala

Scoop Diggins — Thu, 15 Aug 2024 07:26:03 +0000

Former President Trump has regained the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest Fox News national survey.

According to the latest Fox News poll — which previously showed Biden-Harris in the lead earlier this year — Trump is up by one percentage point.

A number of high-profile events have taken place since the poll’s last iteration, which also found Trump with a one-point lead over President Biden. Since last month’s survey, Trump has survived an attempt on his life, selected J.D. Vance as his running mate and formally received the nomination at the Republican National Convention. Things have been eventful for the Democrats as well, as the party removed President Biden from the ticket and nominated Vice President Harris, who did not receive a single primary vote.

(ALERT: This Is The Handshake That Will Collapse The US Dollar)

“By one percentage point, more Democrats back Harris (94%) than Republicans support Trump (93%), while the small subgroup of Independents goes for him by 8 points,” the outlet noted in its write-up for the poll.

Trump is also retaining 95 percent of his 2020 voters, while Harris is keeping a similar pace with 93 percent of Biden’s voters. Last month, new voters preferred Trump over Biden by 7 points.

Trump is performing the best among men, white evangelical Christians, rural voters, and white men without a college degree. Harris is doing well with black voters, women, those with a college degree and voters under 30.

Fox News noted that while Harris is slightly outperforming Biden’s results among these demographics when compared with last month’s poll, she is still lagging behind the president’s 2020 totals.

The new survey also found that those living in union households support Harris by 10 percentage points, while those in military households prefer Trump by 22 points.

When expanding to account for a full field, Harris and Trump each secured 45 percent of the vote, while six percent of respondents expressed support for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Support for the independent candidate is down from 10% in July and a high of 15% in November 2023.

CNN’s Harry Enten Gives Democrats BRUTAL Reminder About Trump’s Polling

Scoop Diggins — Wed, 14 Aug 2024 07:26:40 +0000

Harry Enten, the chief political pollster for CNN, may start to sound like a screechy broken record to Democrats who otherwise would rely on the once-centrist news outlet to carry their water in an election year.

Enten was on for the third time in as many months warning Vice President Kamala Harris about possible pitfalls with just 83 days to go before Election Day. Among them would be to underestimate the deep well of support for former President Donald Trump, and especially his populist policies, which have drawn hundreds of thousands of voters into the Republican Party over the past seven and a half years. The former president is actually performing much better in key demographics than where he stood four years ago, Enten explained.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)

“We’ve kind of been here before,” Enten told viewers on Monday, walking voters through poll results from August 2016 13th in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. “Trump was estimated [to lose] by significant margins. In those polls… Trump was underestimated by 9 points on average at this point. It wasn’t a one-off,” he added, pointing to present-day results showing Trump’s support in those states being underestimated by 5 points on average. “Kamala Harris’s advantage in the New York Times/Sierra College poll was 4 points in each of these key battleground states.”

“The bottom line is this: If you have any idea if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years between now and Election Day, Donald Trump would actually win,” said the analyst. “I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but he’s very much in this ball game.”

WATCH:

Equally bad in Enten’s estimation is the Harris campaign’s naive hope that enthusiasm around her nascent bid will translate into electoral success in November. Spokespersons have pointed to a shift in battleground state polls showing Harris running significantly ahead of where President Joe Biden stood before he dropped out. “That enthusiasm is not the same thing as going out to actually vote, and there’s a different question [in the survey] which says, how certain are you that you’re actually going to go out and vote?” In fact, he adds, the number of Harris voters who say they are “almost certain” to vote now sits at 61%, just shy of the 62% of Biden supporters who said the same back in May. In contrast, the percentage of President Trump’s supporters who say the same has risen in that time to 60% from 58%.

Harris will be hoping to maintain her dominance in the media cycle at next week’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago where she will formally become the party’s nominee. Officials are preparing for a riotous series of protestors who continue to push progressives to vote “uncommitted” in November, a signal that their anti-Israel movement hasn’t changed with the rise of Harris who they still hold responsible for President Biden’s positions.

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JUST IN: Trump RECLAIMS Nationwide Lead In Two Massive Polls

Scoop Diggins — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 05:25:44 +0000

After two weeks of batting back a rise in the polls by Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Donald Trump is now enjoying a resurgence of his own.

Two national polls released Tuesday show the former president clawing to the front once more, a change from polls last week indicating the race was essentially deadlocked. Surveys from CNBC and Rasmussen give Trump leads of 2% and 5%, respectively. The All-America Economic Survey by CNBC showed Trump ahead of Harris 48% to 46%, and voters are giving him a massive endorsement on handling of the economy, preferring him by a margin of more than 2-to-1. Another good sign for Trump: the results are virtually unchanged from CNBC’s July poll when he led President Joe Biden 45% to 43%, suggesting Vice President Harris’s new rivalry hasn’t dented his standing among swing voters.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)

The Rasmussen survey also shows Trump maintaining a level amount of support in a head-to-head matchup. But in a scenario where independent Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is on the ballot, the former president’s support increased by 3% since July to 49% while Harris and RFK lost 1% and 2%, respectively. With a margin of error of +/- 2%, President Trump is well ahead in the large survey.

2024 GE: @Rasmussen_Poll

Trump: 49% [=]
Harris: 44% [=]
Other: 4%
—
Trump: 49% [+3]
Harris: 44% [-1]
RFK Jr: 3% [-2]
Other: 2%

[+/- change vs July 28-31]
—
1,794 LV | August 1 & 4-7 | MoE: ±2%https://t.co/s2GloBn522 pic.twitter.com/Yln45pbjci

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 8, 2024

Still, Harris may glean bits of good news as well: a dramatic shift in the CNBC poll showed that 81% of Democrats are now satisfied with her nomination compared to just 33% at the nadir of Biden’s campaign. Support among young voters has swung her way as well; where Trump enjoyed a 2% lead among voters under 30 back in July, Harris now leads the group by 10%. However, that was offset by a swing of 12% more support to Trump among voters ages 35-49, a demographic that now supports Trump by 9%.

“It is less now a referendum on Trump than it is a head-to-head competition between the two candidates,” said Micah Roberts, partner at the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies who helped conduct the CNBC survey. Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research who served as the Democratic pollster, added that Harris is making up for the sins of her boss in the eyes of voters. “She’s still carrying a lot of water for the administration,” Campbell said. “She has to answer for that and define herself independently…That’s a lot of baggage to carry when you’ve got a compressed time frame against a mature campaign on Trump’s side.”

The economy remains front and center for voters and ranks at or near the top of the list alongside immigration, both issues where President Trump holds commanding leads. A large majority of Americans believe their pocketbooks and bank accounts will be better off under a second Trump administration, and even worse for Harris is data showing just 48% of Democrats believe she would be a better economic steward while 42% believe it makes no difference.

Before Harris’s entrance into the race, only a minuscule number of voters remained undecided between Trump and Biden; now the number of undecided independent voters has risen to 20%. The campaign that is most successful in courting this sliver of the electorate may ultimately come out the winner in November.

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JUST IN: Democrat Senator Now On Track To LOSE Crucial Seat

Scoop Diggins — Fri, 09 Aug 2024 05:25:37 +0000

A must-win U.S. Senate seat appears to be slipping away from Democrats, putting Vice President Kamala Harris’s party on track to lose the upper chamber and threatening to leave the side locked out of congressional control if she wins the White House.

New numbers from Emerson College conducted with The Hill show that Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2024 cycle, now sits two points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, Bronze Star recipient, and one of the Republican Party’s strongest recruits. Sheehy leads Sen. Tester 48% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup with 5% of voters remaining undecided.

MONTANA POLL with @thehill

2024 US Senate Election

Tim Sheehy (R) 48%
Jon Tester (D) 46%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/PCPb4jqH2M pic.twitter.com/AVOcnXz7gd

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 8, 2024

Tester, who is seeking his fourth six-year term, has served in the Senate since 2006 after eight years in the state Senate and an earlier career as a farmer. He narrowly escaped losses in both 2012 and 2018, but it appears the Republican Party of President Trump has finally caught up to him. The former president endorsed Sheehy early on, and he easily beat back primary challengers before facing Tester. He has an uphill battle on fundraising, and in June reported raising over $14 million and ending the month with $3 million on hand, according to filings with the Federal Elections Commission; in comparison, Sen. Tester has raised nearly $44 million in that time and holds nearly $11 million on hand in a state where advertising is comparably cheaper than large-city media markets.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)

With the shift in polling, Democrats are now predicted to lose control of the Senate. Pollster Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” ratings are taken as a gold standard in the industry, currently gives Republicans better chances at controlling 50 Senate seats in 2025 while he expects Democrats to hold 48 seats while two remain toss-ups. One of the latter is Montana, which may soon fall the GOP’s way. In addition to heavy outside spending in the race, Sen. Tester’s record is likely weighing down his numbers as well. In October of 2023, he was seen fleeing from cameras after ignoring questions about his votes against additional military funding for Israel. The incident came just weeks after the deadly October 7th attack by Hamas which left 1,400 Israelis dead and hundreds more taken hostage.

If Republicans are able to expand the map, their Senate numbers could go even higher. Conservative spitfire Kari Lake is predicted by Sabato to lose her Senate race in Arizona, but a poll in July showed her leading her Democratic rival, Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), by 2%. Bernie Moreno, a Trump-endorsed challenger to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), has earned Lake’s endorsement. While he trails the embattled Democratic incumbent in the latest polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, Sabato rates the race as the nation’s only other toss-up.

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92 Percent Blame KAMALA For Covering Up Biden’s Decline

Scoop Diggins — Sat, 27 Jul 2024 03:26:36 +0000

Vice President Kamala Harris is starting her presidential campaign in a deep hole related to whether she knew about President Joe Biden’s physical and cognitive declines. A new poll released on Thursday shows more than nine in 10 Americans believe she participated in efforts by the White House to cover up the signs. The YouGov/Times of London polled 1,170 registered voters, most of whom believe the veep joined Dr. Jill Biden and senior administration officials in scheming to keep the 81-year-old at the top of the ticket until it was almost too late.

The New York Post expanded on details of the survey which went into the field for two days immediately after President Biden announced on Sunday that he was ending his campaign for a second term. On Wednesday evening he delivered a halting Oval Office speech that effectively served as a farewell address to the nation and was accompanied by an ominous warning about democracy and the stakes of the 2024 election.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)

An astonishing 92% of respondents believe Harris knew at least a little bit about the president’s progressive deterioration which finally hit the public consciousness following his disastrous debate against President Trump on June 27th. The fallout was all-consuming, putting the White House on daily defense as top Democratic Party officials lined up to urge the president to step aside. The numbers also show more than two in three voters believe Harris knew a “great deal” about Biden’s impairments; 68% overall, with 78% of Republicans, 73% of independents, and 82% of self-identified conservatives saying Harris was central to the coverup.

Just 17% of those surveyed believe Harris was “somewhat” knowledgeable about President Biden’s struggles while 7% say she was “a little” involved in hiding them. Only 22% of Democrats believe she had a great deal to do with hiding the truth about the embattled 81-year-old president.

Asked who is to blame for letting the Democratic Party come devilishly close to running Biden through November, 58% of Democrats and 64% of self-identified liberals believe Harris was pushing the White House to hide President Biden’s ailing health, with an additional 20% of Democrats and 21% of liberals saying she knew “a little” about the plan. Just 12% of Democrats and 7% of liberals say she knew nothing at all.

The Trump campaign is seeking to tie Harris to her boss, who was down by 6% nationally before ceding the race. Following Biden’s exit, the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. released an ad claiming Harris knew about “Joe’s obvious mental decline.” On Monday the campaign arm of U.S. Senate Republicans demanded that President Biden resign from office, citing his inability to continue in the race. Biden in his Oval Office address stated he would not be stepping down, leaving Harris without the power of incumbency as she heads into November. And although her standing in the polls has improved from where Biden stood, President Trump still holds a slim national lead.

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CNN’s Harry Enten Crushes Democrat Hopes, Breaks Down Kamala’s ‘Difficult’ Path To Victory

Scoop Diggins — Wed, 24 Jul 2024 02:26:38 +0000

Democrats might be popping the champagne bottles a little too early in celebrating Vice President Kamala Harris’s rise to the top of the ticket, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.

The senior data analyst broke down Harris’s “difficult” path to victory against former President Donald Trump, pointing out that her polling numbers aren’t much better than her boss, who was essentially shoved aside by fellow leaders in the Democratic Party who feared President Joe Biden’s numbers would drag down contests for the U.S. House and Senate.

VOTE NOW: Do you blame BIDEN or TRUMP for the crashing economy?

“This has been the craziest month in American politics that I can recall,” Enten said, referencing the attempted assassination of Trump and how last month’s debate seems to have happened a lifetime ago. “But here’s the thing — for all of the excitement that Democrats have over Kamala Harris, it is going to be difficult to beat Donald Trump.”

The first hurdle, he said, will be Trump’s favorability ratings. While he has consistently remained a polarizing figure among the electorate, the Republican leader now carries his highest rating on record since he was nearly shot and killed less than two weeks ago. After speaking at the Republican National Convention, Trump carries a 40% approval by ABC/Ipsos and a 46% approval according to Quinnipiac, both records for him.

“The fact is, Donald Trump is more popular now than he ever has been before. So yes, Democrats can make this switcheroo, but they’re still going to have to beat Donald Trump – a Donald Trump who is stronger than he has ever been before,” Enten added.

WATCH:

The second obstacle is Harris’s own poll numbers against the former president. She draws a marginally better showing among voters than President Joe Biden but is still well behind the defiant frontrunner. Today, Trump leads Harris by 1%, “within the margin” of error and indicating a “close race,” said the analyst.

“But remember of course, in a national popular vote Democrats tend to do better there than they do in the Electoral College, at least when Donald Trump is running for president. So last time around when Joe Biden barely won in the Electoral College, he actually won the national popular vote by four points. So at this point, Donald Trump is running five points better… than he was four years ago against Joe Biden.”

He added. “So at this point, whether you look at the favorable rating, whether you look at horse race polling, we see that Donald Trump is doing significantly better than he was doing four years ago at this point. Kamala Harris is going to have to do better than this, of course, if she wants to win the popular vote but more than that if she wants to win the Electoral College where she’ll likely have to outperform how she’s done nationally because the fact is if you’ve got a tie in the national popular vote that is probably not good enough if you Kamala Harris and you want to win the election against Donald Trump.”

Enten’s figures are backed up by a number of polls conducted before and after President Biden announced on Sunday that he was ending his bid for a second term. The first poll conducted entirely since the weekend shows the Republican besting Harris by 2% nationally while a number of polls started before Sunday show Trump ahead by as much as 10%

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