Failing to draft ultra-Orthodox men into the IDF cost the country NIS 8.5 billion in 2024, investment firm BDO estimated in a report commissioned by civil religious-freedom movement Israel Hofsheet.

BDO calculated that if 27,000 haredim (ultra-Orthodox) – which they say makes up only 40% of those whose service has been pushed off for yeshiva study – had been drafted, the state could have saved NIS 8.5 billion, the firm asserted.

The savings would have been made possible by replacing reservists with regular-service haredi soldiers.

The savings break down into NIS 2.9 billion of budgetary expenses saved, saving of NIS 3.5 billion in lost GDP from reservists missing work, saving NIS 0.9 billion lost through harm to a partner’s employment, and saving NIS 2.2 billion lost from loss of seniority.

These estimates were based on publicly available information and BDO estimates, the firm said, adding that its calculation was based on conservative assumptions, including leaving out possible additional harm to freelancers and businesses.

Additionally, the report only accounted for one hour of lost labor per day for reservists’ partners because this is what is allowed by law. This is likely a conservative estimate given the challenges posed to partners of reservists and the potential impacts on them.

Increases in amount of reserve duty and implications for the economy

The report also focused on the potential economic impact of an increase in the amount of reserve duty, discussed by the IDF and Israel’s political echelon, saying this would have a serious impact on Israel’s economy.

Not only would increased reserve duty come with a budgetary cost, but it would also harm economic activity, the employment and income of the partners of reservists, and lead to missed education and downtime for reservists, the report said.

The report highlighted that 50% of reservists are contracted employees, 31% are freelancers, 16% are students, and just 3% are unemployed.

Reservists are among the country’s most productive population and are in the prime of their employment, the report stressed, adding that this means that extending their reserve service has a significant impact on production.The report compared the cost of a regular service haredi soldier to that of a reservist, using this as part of the basis for calculating the costs of not drafting ultra-Orthodox soldiers.

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While a reservist costs the economy around NIS 2,400 per day, a regular service ultra-Orthodox soldier would cost around NIS 700 per day, the report said.

This estimate was based on IDF salaries, including stipends for children, offset by the savings in the costs to the budget of yeshiva students through stipends and other expenses. 

“The outrageous Haredi draft exemption is not only an economic absurdity but also a threat to Israel’s defense needs and social equality,” said Uri Keidar, Israel Hofsheet’s Executive Director. “A mandatory, universal draft is both a security imperative and an economic necessity—it is the just and fair course of action.”

Market players are overwhelmingly anticipating an interest rate cut at the US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday.

That means rate cuts are already priced in to markets, helping so-called risk-on assets surge higher.

But the Fed might adopt a “more hawkish tone” in the meeting, which could dampen the crypto rally, Haider Rafique, Global CMO of OKX told DL News.

That would signal more aggressive moves from the Fed.

But, he added: “Investors should remain vigilant, as the Fed’s policy decisions are influenced by multiple factors, including inflation rates and economic resilience.”

In the meantime, lower interest rates will shore up confidence in assets including crypto, André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told DL News.

“An increase in liquidity should benefit altcoins relatively more than Bitcoin as investors move further out the risk spectrum,” he said.

Altcoins have been on a tear. XRP has stood out with its price skyrocketing 300% since Donald Trump’s election win pumped the hype around an inbound crypto-friendly administration.

Both Bitcoin and Solana have hit new highs since November 5, and analysts say it’s just the beginning.

Ethereum has yet to beat its 2021 $4,878 high, but it blew past $4,000 for the first time in months earlier in December and experts say it could hit $10,000 in 2025.

Fed cut

CME Group’s FedWatch tool gives a 95% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 0.25% on Wednesday.

Dragosch says that it will probably not be the last cut due to a combination of a strong US dollar — bolstered by Trump’s election — and weaker labour market numbers. Unemployment rose in November.

“The Fed needs to cut even more aggressively going forward to prevent financial conditions from tightening further,” he said.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, echoed the sentiment.

He’s also anticipating interest rate cuts on Wednesday, telling DL News they will “likely provide further support for crypto prices.”

Crypto market movers

• Bitcoin is down 1.4% over the past 24 hours to $105,103.
• Ethereum is down 2.6% over the past 24 hours to $3,887.

What we’re reading

Pedro Solimano is a markets correspondent based in Buenos Aires. Got a tip? Email him at psolimano@dlnews.com.

A new personal security device launched today promises to fix “crypto’s weakest link” by making it easy and secure for anyone to store the keys to their entire digital life and wealth, and transact across the full range of apps of the decentralized economy.

Passport Prime is the new consumer-oriented device from Foundation, which has shaken up the stagnant self-custody market since launching in 2020. Not merely a secure Bitcoin cold storage solution, Passport Prime is a comprehensive digital security and sovereignty tool for first-time and experienced users, combining a hardware wallet with multi-factor authenticator, encrypted flash drive, and secure app platform.

Unlike traditional wallets, which only represent a single piece of the journey to secure your digital life, Passport Prime is the only device anyone needs to safeguard the digital keys, passwords, and other authentication codes. Customers who previously used a range of devices, including hardware wallets, security keys, or encrypted flash drives can now use Passport Prime to safeguard their entire digital life, now and forever, on a single device and for a fraction of the cost.

“The hardware wallet industry has been coasting for years, failing to deliver any meaningful innovation and unable to respond to digital assets’ rapidly evolving utility and use cases,” said Zach Herbert, co-founder and CEO of Foundation. “Wallets have become crypto’s weakest link: they are difficult to onboard to, complex to use, and increasingly insecure for a range of modern blockchain transactions. 

“Passport Prime is the first device of its kind: a Personal Security Platform that’s fit for the future decentralized economy, making it simple to safeguard all your private keys in one offline device, and sign every kind of transaction or contract with complete peace of mind.” 

In stark contrast to ‘leading’ consumer wallets like Ledger, Passport Prime is built on fully open source hardware and software,., which underpins a threefold revolution in security, user experience and interoperability through enhanced transparency, audibility, and ease of integration with the wider decentralized ecosystem. Designed according to Foundation’s principles of individual sovereignty, intuitive design, and transparency, the new device is poised to supercharge adoption of digital assets. 

Passport Prime features several unique innovations that ensure user experience dovetails seamlessly with the strongest possible security. For example, Foundation created a new protocol called QuantumLink which provides the security of an airgap over Bluetooth, where the dedicated chip is separate from the security processor running KeyOS. This Bluetooth chip can only

send and receive messages that have been encrypted using quantum-resistant tech, ensuring Passport Prime is fully future-proofed at a time while other consumer wallets are struggling to catch up with the present day.  

Other key features include:

• Mobile-Centric Experience: Easy and secure Bluetooth onboarding via QuantumLink, connecting to Foundation’s 5-star App Store-rated Envoy app, which makes Bitcoin self custody easy for beginners while also featuring powerful privacy features, including Tor and personal node connectivity, and an intuitive coin control experience. 
• NFC for easy and quick backups with Foundation’s NFC KeyCards
• Next-generation security thanks to KeyOS – Foundation’s microkernel operating system. KeyOS represents a massive leap from legacy operating systems on today’s hardware wallets, like Ledger’s BOLOS, which runs in a closed-source smart card environment. KeyOS’ microkernel provides massively enhanced resilience and modularity, while also supporting new security features, like process isolation and communication only via message-passing
• Developer Ecosystem: Passport Prime will support third-party apps, expanding its functionality beyond traditional hardware wallets. Passport Prime’s 3rd-party launch partner, Cake Wallet, will extend support for Monero, Ethereum, and Solana
• Premium Design: Featuring a 3.5” touchscreen, anodized aluminum, and Gorilla Glass for durability
• Affordable Price: At $299, Passport Prime combines cutting-edge security and ease of use, positioning it as a top choice for both crypto novices and experts

Herbert will be unveiling Passport Prime today in a livestream at 1pm ET, December 16. The first 1,000 customers can pre-order the device through Foundation’s Early Access Program. Anyone wishing to reserve their Passport Prime before mass production and shipment begins in Q2 2025 can do it through the website: foundation.xyz/passport-prime 

After toppling the regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader and commander-in-chief of the new administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir to lead a caretaker government until March 1.

The move aims to stabilise the country by providing basic services to civilians and preventing a power struggle between armed groups over state resources and ministries, experts told Al Jazeera.

“[A caretaker government is needed] to ensure the state keeps functioning and that people have electricity, water sewage and the internet,” said Thomas Pierret, an expert on Syria for the Institute for Research and Study of the Arab and Muslim World.

However, the caretaker government – and HTS – could lose credibility if it refuses to share power after three months, experts have warned.

Here’s what we know about the caretaker government and its head:

Who is Mohammed al-Bashir?

The head of the caretaker government is a technocrat who headed the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib, a province in northwest Syria.

After the Syrian uprising erupted in March 2011, Idlib became an opposition stronghold. By 2017, HTS consolidated control and created the SSG out of civilian technocrats.

“Mohammed al-Bashir … has done a reasonably good job in Idlib,” said Robin Yassin-Kassab, an expert on Syria and the co-author of Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and in War.

“I understand that it makes sense to scale [the Salvation Government] up to the whole of Syria, for now,” he added.

Al-Bashir’s background in electrical engineering, project management and administrative planning suggests he has the professional know-how to maintain basic services in the country, analysts said.

He first emerged as a minister in the HTS-backed Salvation government in 2021, according to the caretaker government’s official website

For two years, he served as the head of development and humanitarian affairs, according to Assaad Al Achi, executive director of Baytna, a non-governmental organisation that supported local civil society groups in Syria throughout the war.

“He was definitely interested in humanitarian work because that’s where the money was,” Al Achi said, referencing the SSG’s policy of taxing aid organisations.

On January 13, 2024, the Shura Council in Idlib elected al-Bashir as prime minister of the SSG.

Who are the other ministers?

Al-Bashir has told Al Jazeera Arabic that, for the time being, the ministers from the SSG would take over the national ministerial portfolios. The current ministerial lineup is:

• Minister of Interior Mohammed Abdul Rahman
• Minister of Economy and Resources Basel Abdul Aziz
• Minister of Information Muhammad Yaqoub al-Omar
• Minister of Justice Shadi Muhammad al-Waisi
• Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Mohamed Taha al-Ahmad
• Minister of Health Mazen Dukhan
• Minister of Development Fadi al-Qassem
• Minister of Local Administration and Services Mohamed Abdel Rahman Muslim
• Minister of Endowments Hussam Haj Hussein
• Minister of Education Nazir al-Qadri
• Minister of Higher Education and Scientific Research Abdel Moneim Abdel Hafez

Is there going to be a transition?

Despite al-Bashir’s prominent role, Al Achi does not believe the caretaker prime minister has ambitions to consolidate power over Syria.

“What worries me is if [this caretaker government] extends [its term] for more than three months, but if it just for three months … then that’s alright,” he said.

Experts are concerned that HTS will try to rule all of Syria with an iron fist.

According to a report by the Syrian Network for Human Rights, HTS subjected critics and opponents to enforced disappearances and tortured people to death.

Al Jazeera asked the HTS media office to respond to these allegations, but they had not commented by the time of publication.

Setting up to succeed

The caretaker government and HTS could ease concerns of a power grab by proposing a roadmap detailing when negotiations with other stakeholders would begin ahead of forming a broader coalition, Yassin-Kassab told Al Jazeera.

He added that a plan should aim to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2254, which calls for a transitional period of 18 months, during which an inclusive coalition will draft a constitution and prepare for elections under United Nations supervision.

“[HTS] need to say this is the beginning of a process that will involve every aspect of society and all political leaderships,” said Yassin-Kassab.

“That would reassure Syrians and the international community and give the new government much more legitimacy.”

Who’s going to pay for the transition?

Syria’s economy is in tatters – the World Bank ranks its gross domestic product (GDP) at 129 out of 196 states.

HTS managed to raise revenue during its rule in Idlib by taxing residents, as well as goods and relief passing through from the Turkish border. However, it is unclear whether the group has enough finances to bolster the economy and supply basic provisions in the short to medium term.

Experts believe HTS can be incentivised to share power by linking sanction relief to political reforms.

Syria is on the United States list of “countries that sponsor terrorism” and, on top of that, HTS is considered a “foreign terrorist organisation” by the European Union, Turkiye and the US.

The EU and US have also sanctioned much of the Syrian economy, including the energy sector and the trading of goods related to technology or electricity provision, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW).

It’s imperative that HTS shares power with other stakeholders and civil society in order to convince Syrians and the international community that the group has changed, argues Yassin-Kassab.

“[I]t remains to be seen if this is the beginning of a power grab by HTS and HTS-aligned civilian bodies,” he told Al Jazeera.

“I certainly hope not.”

Doctors say leftist leader has been cleared to work while recovering at home after being rushed to hospital last week.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has been released from hospital following an emergency surgery to treat bleeding in his brain.

The 79-year-old Brazilian leader delivered brief remarks upon his release on Sunday, days after he was rushed to the Syrian-Lebanese Hospital in Sao Paulo after experiencing headaches.

“I’m here alive, well, with the urge to work. And I’ll tell you something I used to say during the campaign. I’m 79 years old, I have the energy of a 30-year-old and the enthusiasm of a 20-year-old to build this country,” Lula said.

Doctors have said Lula would continue to recover from his home in Sao Paulo. He will be able to walk and hold meetings, but has been advised against international travel for the time being.

The medical team said the leftist leader should be able to travel domestically, including to the capital Brasilia, following further assessment.

Lula underwent two surgeries while at the hospital, both aimed at blocking blood flow in parts of his brain to prevent haemorrhaging. His personal doctor had described the procedures as “routine” and “minimally invasive”, requiring only sedation as opposed to anaesthesia.

His neurologist, Rogerio Tuma, reported last week that Lula’s examination results were “normal”.

Lula, who was sworn in as president in early 2023, had suffered trauma to the back of his head after falling in his home in October. At the time he received several stitches. He had curtailed travel following the fall.

‘Disrespect of democracy’

Speaking on Sunday, the president also offered his first response to the arrest of General Walter Braga Netto, in connection with investigations into an alleged coup plot.

Braga Netto, who was a defence minister in right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro’s government as well as the former leader’s running mate in the 2022 election, was arrested on Saturday after he was formally accused last month with 35 others – including Bolsonaro himself – of allegedly plotting a coup to keep the former president in power following his 2022 re-election loss.

“It is not possible for us to accept disrespect for democracy, disrespect for the constitution,” Lula said.

“And it is not possible for us to accept that in a generous country like Brazil, we have people of high military rank plotting the death of a president, his vice president and a presiding judge of the Supreme Electoral Court,” said Lula.

Prosecutors have not yet filed formal charges against Braga Netto, although authorities have said his arrest was related to allegations that he was obstructing the collection of evidence.

If you missed out on the surging crypto market in the latter part of 2024, you might still have a chance to get in on the action.

According to VanEck’s 2025 predictions, the coming year could have even more in store, including another leg up for Bitcoin, a potential resurgence of NFTs, and breakthroughs in decentralised finance.

“We believe the crypto bull market will persist through 2025,” VanEck states.

Here are five standout predictions that could play a major part in crypto in the year to come.

Crypto prices

VanEck predicts that the crypto bull market will maintain its momentum through 2025, with a medium-term peak in the first quarter.

“At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum trading above $6,000,” said Van Eck. It also foresees Solana reaching the $500 level.

According to the investment firm, after the Q1 high, Bitcoin may face a 30% correction, with altcoins potentially seeing sharper declines of up to 60%.

Analysts project the market to rebound in Q4, with major tokens recovering and potentially reaching new all-time highs.

US goes all in

VanEck predicts that the United States could embrace Bitcoin in 2025 accompanying a positive shift in crypto policy.

This could include the federal government or individual states like Pennsylvania, Texas, and Florida establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves.

The report also forecasts a broader regulatory pivot: “New SEC leadership or the CFTC is expected to approve multiple spot crypto exchange-traded products in the US.”

On the corporate side, VanEck projects a 43% surge in Bitcoin holdings by private and public companies.

Meanwhile, US-based Bitcoin mining is expected to flourish, increasing its share of the global hash rate from 28% in 2024 to 35% by 2025.

Stablecoin growth

VanEck projects that stablecoins’ daily settlement volumes are expected to skyrocket to $300 billion.

That’s a 400% increase from the values that we are currently seeing in the tail part of 2024.

The report notes the growing potential for major companies like Apple, Google, Visa, and Mastercard to adopt stablecoin-based payment systems.

“Stablecoins will leapfrog their niche role in crypto trading to become a core part of global commerce,” said VanEck.

DeFi rise

Decentralised finance is set for a record-breaking year in 2025, according to the report, with decentralised exchange volumes expected to surpass $4 trillion.

“We anticipate that decentralised exchanges will capture 20% of centralised exchange spot volumes in 2025, driven by the proliferation of tokenised securities and new consumer-facing dApps,” VanEck states.

In addition to trading activity, the total value locked in DeFi is projected to rebound to cross the $200 billion mark.

NFT comeback

The NFT market is poised for a strong recovery in 2025, with trading volumes projected to reach $30 billion, according to VanEck’s report.

“While non-fungible token prices began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged behind until a turning point in November,” the report notes.

Established collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club are expected to benefit from the renewed interest, while newer projects such as Pudgy Penguins and Miladys continue to gain traction.

Ethereum will likely continue to dominate the NFT space, with its share of trading volumes predicted to rise from 71% in 2024 to 85% by the end of 2025.

Kyle Baird is DL News’ Weekend Editor. Got a tip? Email at kbaird@dlnews.com.