A recent survey shows small business owners are feeling more optimistic about the economy following the election.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November to 101.7, its highest reading since June 2021.

The Uncertainty Index declined 12 points in November to 98, following October’s pre-election record high of 110.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said small business owners became more certain about future business conditions following the presidential election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty.

“Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures,” he said in a statement. “In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.”

The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve rose 41 points from October to a net 36%, the highest since June 2020.

Some owners are also hoping 2025 will be a good time to grow. The percent of small business owners believing it is a good time to expand their business rose eight points to a 14%. This is also the highest reading since June 2021.

While inflation has eased, it remains a top concern for owners. Twenty percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs). It surpassed labor quality as the top issue by one point.

• Heavy rainfall may improve yields
• Cautious optimism among analysts
• Tourism and automotive growth

Analysts hope that heavy rainfall in the south of Morocco this autumn will refill aquifers across the country that have been depleted by six years of intense drought, and improve crop yields for 2025. 

The country’s agriculture sector is a major employer, and accounts for 12 percent of Morocco’s GDP, but it is volatile.

The World Bank is cautiously predicting 3.7 percent growth next year, whereas Fitch Solutions and Oxford Economics both forecast a more optimistic 5 percent.

Much of that growth however depends on rainfall reinvigorating the agricultural sector after a dry 2024. October’s deluge in the south, despite replenishing water supplies, was not all good news for farmers.

Francois Conradie, lead Africa economist at Oxford Economics, says that some farmers lost herds of sheep and cattle in the worst of the flooding and will be compensated through a special envelope included in the 2025 budget.

Data from the Humanitarian Data Exchange shows that across all of Morocco’s northern regions, rainfall so far in 2024 has been below the average for the preceding nine years.

Conradie says that overall, the year has been a dry one and that is mainly felt through the effect on the cereal harvest – wheat and barley. 

Morocco’s cereal harvest was 3.1 million tonnes this year, down from 5.5 million last year, which was in line with the long-term average. 

“As always the effects on the overall economy are felt through weaker final demand as farmers find themselves with less to spend,” Conradie says.

Elsewhere big exporters such as Morocco’s automotive and aerospace industries should contribute to growth.

Tourism, too, is growing apace. Sixteen million visitors came in the 11 months to the end of November 2024, 20 percent more than in the same period in 2023, the ministry of tourism says. Morocco is targeting 17.5 million visitors by 2026 and 26 million by 2030, coinciding with its role as a co-host of the Fifa World Cup. 

Ali Metwally, Mena economist at the UK-based Ibis Consultancy, says that foreign direct investment surged by 50 percent in the first half of the year.

Pro-business reforms, proximity to Europe and West Africa, and growing sectors such as renewable energy, automotive, and infrastructure spending mean that Morocco “is a compelling destination for investors,” he tells AGBI. 

In November, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, stopped in Morocco on his way home from Latin America. President Macron of France also visited.

China is investing in Morocco’s EV battery and manufacturing industries, aiming to take advantage of free trade agreements with the United States and the European Union. 

The Chinese company Gotion High-Tech has committed $1.3 billion to build Africa’s first EV battery “gigafactory” near Rabat, while two Chinese battery component makers, BTR New Material Group and Shinzoom, have invested $300 million and $690 million, respectively. Morocco has also formed partnerships with other African states to develop the infrastructure needed for electric vehicles.

The attractions are Morocco’s proximity to European markets, its reserves of raw materials such as phosphates for battery production, and the potential to access the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

US President elect Donald Trump has, however, promised to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on all exporters, while the European Union also now imposes tariffs on Chinese exports of batteries.

Morocco indicators

Morocco also has the support of the big banks. The country is a “major investment destination” for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Odile Renaud-Basso, the bank’s president, said in December.

In 2024 the EBRD lent more than €400 million while EBRD strategy until 2029 highlights investment in SMEs and renewable energy projects.

Morocco and the African Development Bank (AfDB) also just announced funding agreements of nearly $1 billion to cover development for the World Cup 2030, investment in economic governance and improving resilience to climate change, among other initiatives.

However, the government still has to tackle structural challenges such as high unemployment, regional inequalities and a reliance on low-value agricultural exports, Metwally warns.  

Unemployment was only slightly under 14 percent in the third quarter of 2024, with the number of unemployed increasing by 58,000 to reach 1.7 million. Urban areas face a particularly severe situation, with unemployment at 17 percent, while rural regions report seven percent.

“Reforms in labour markets, education and fiscal policy are critical, along with continued investment in infrastructure and renewable energy,” Metwally says.

The latest insight by GetAgent shows estate agents predicting housing market conditions will improve in 1025.

GetAgent commissioned a survey of estate agents and results show that:

• The majority of agents believe 2025 is set to bring another year of positivity for the property market, with 76% stating that they believe the market will continue to recover over the next year;

• Mortgage approvals are the first sign of improving market health and, having first hit the 60,000 monthly threshold back in February, they have also been climbing consistently since March, hitting 68,303 in October;

• 67% of agents surveyed believe that this increasing level of buyer demand will continue in 2025, with more mortgages being approved;

• What’s more, the majority of those surveyed believe that we will see this initial gauge of buyer activity convert, with 64% expecting an increase in sales volumes in 2025 versus 2024;

• An increase in market activity often drives house price performance and 69% of those surveyed expect house prices to climb in 2025, following months of consistent upward growth in 2024;

• However, whilst 2025 is expected to be another year of positivity, estate agents do believe that the looming SDLT deadline at the end of March could bring a momentary bump in the road. With current SDLT relief thresholds set to end from 1st April, homebuyers will be scrambling to complete before this cost is set to climb;

• 67% of those surveyed believe that once this deadline does expire, there will be a market correction, as the market returns to normality;

• When asked what they believe will be the biggest challenges for the market in 2025, ongoing affordability issues related to high house prices ranked top;

• Mortgage rates remaining higher than previous years was the second biggest challenge the market faces for the year ahead, with a lack of supply to meet demand also expected to prove problematic. 

A GetAgent spokesperson says: “It has been a year of overall positivity. We’ve seen an increase in buyer activity and property values have also increased, albeit at a more measured pace.

“The general consensus is that 2025 is set to bring more of the same, with the current market recovery set to continue. 

“With another looming stamp duty deadline, we can expect a heightened level of activity in the short-term and this will almost certainly be followed by a period of correction as the market returns to normality.”

Economic growth revised to zero, stubbornly high inflation, and warnings of job losses on the horizon. After less than six months in office, a narrative is taking hold that Keir Starmer’s government is fumbling his number one mission to reboot Britain’s economy.

On the eve of the prime minister’s first Christmas in Downing Street, the early indicators certainly aren’t looking good. After growth was revised down from 0.1% to zero in the third quarter, and with the Bank of England forecasting more of the same in the fourth quarter, at best the UK economy has gone sideways since Labour’s election landslide in July.

The Tory argument is that Rachel Reeves has “killed, plucked and cooked the UK economic goose” just in time for Christmas, having crushed consumer and business confidence through a combination of dour rhetoric and large tax rises.

Certainly the chancellor’s downbeat messaging – deployed to hammer the Conservatives into electoral oblivion and emphasise the need for change – has had an impact.

Surveys of consumer confidence fell sharply late in the summer as Reeves rolled the pitch for the biggest tax-raising budget in decades, in a period when Labour expended much of its early political capital by cutting winter fuel payments and sticking to the two-child limit on benefits.

Despite a cloying charm offensive with business before the election, Labour has spent recent months trying to reassure its new friends that its “pro-business” promise wasn’t just an empty Blairite soundbite, after Reeves increased employer national insurance contributions by £25bn in the budget.

But while Labour’s return to power hasn’t been entirely smooth, it would be hyperbolic to blame Britain’s recent run of recent disappointing data solely on a government elected less than six months ago. It will take years to turn around an economy that has been misfiring for the best part of the past decade. It is a message Reeves is clearly leaning into, having told the Guardian last week she won’t “gaslight” voters about the speed of the turnaround.

The economic picture is more complex and nuanced than much of the coverage suggests.

The UK recording the fastest growth in the G7 in the first half of this year was partly influenced by the snapback from a shallow recession in the second half of 2023, at the peak of the cost of living crisis. Most economists and business leaders did not expect higher levels of growth to sustainably persist, especially while public services remained under pressure. The Bank of England warned as far back as February that inflation would return above its 2% target in the second half of 2024.

Analysts at the consultancy Capital Economics highlight that the third-quarter growth downgrade was mainly driven by international factors – including a drag from net trade – rather than the areas of the economy Labour is blamed for hitting. Consumer spending still grew by a decent 0.5%, while business investment was revised up from growth of 1.2% to 1.9%.

However, the narrative that Labour has goosed the economy is a helpful one for Starmer’s critics. This includes business leaders pushing hard to gain concessions on tax and reforms to workers’ rights, as well as the Tories, as they hope to repair a shattered reputation for economic management.

When the shadow business secretary, Andrew Griffith, says Labour must “urgently change course”, it’s not clear exactly what he has in mind. It also doesn’t take much to recall the chaotic final years of the last government, when the sheer volume of repeated course changes left Britain reeling: including five government posts for Griffith himself in only two years.

Few voters would agree that Britain was a land of milk and honey before July, when the Tories were lurching from one existential crisis to the next. Cutting tens of billions of pounds in taxes while public services crumbled meant the country was on an unsustainable course – for the resilience of the public finances, the needs of the nation, and the economic outlook.

That isn’t to say 2025 won’t be a daunting challenge for Labour. With stickier inflation and interest rates, weaker growth in the UK’s largest European trading partners, and the prospect of Donald Trump reigniting global trade wars, the new government will remain under economic and political pressure.

ASTANA – President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev appointed Serik Zhumangarin as the new Minister of National Economy on Dec. 21, relieving him of his previous position, reported Akorda. Zhumangarin retains the post of Deputy Prime Minister, which he has held since 2022.

Serik Zhumangarin. Photo credit: primeminister.kz.

This follows the dismissal of Nurlan Baibazarov, who held the post for less than a year.

Zhumangarin, 55, is from the Aktobe Region and graduated from the Moscow Power Engineering Institute with a degree in thermal physics. Before entering public service in 2005, he worked in the oil industry.

In 2017, Zhumangarin became Vice Minister of National Economy, two years later, he took the post of member of the Eurasian Economic Commission’s Competition and Antitrust Regulation Unit. In 2020, Zhumangarin was appointed Chairman of the Kazakhstan Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition. In 2022, he served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Trade and Integration, a role he held until September 2023.

Introducing Zhumangarin, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov emphasized ensuring dynamic economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes, effective budget and tax policies, and improved budget forecasting.

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S&P Global Ratings recently released its eurozone economic outlook for the first quarter of next year, estimating that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the eurozone this year will be 0.8%, while increasing to 1.2% next year. 

Spain’s economic performance is expected to be resilient, while Germany is likely to experience dampened economic growth. 

Next year, inflation is likely to be slightly lower at 2.4%, down from a previously anticipated 2.5%, mainly because of a more marked fall in energy prices.

However economic and geopolitical risks still remain for next year, especially as new government leaders in the EU, US and Germany may make significant changes to defence spending and tariffs in 2025.

Germany likely to continue underperforming in first quarter of 2025

S&P Global expects German GDP growth to be approximately 0.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of next year, significantly less than the eurozone’s expected GDP growth rate, at 1.2%. Similarly, Italy is also expected to lag, at 0.7%. 

Regarding the reasons behind Germany’s expected underperformance early next year, Sylvain Broyer, chief EMEA economist at S&P Global Ratings, said in an email note: “This reflects a crisis of confidence, driven by the late recognition that Germany’s economic model is no longer viable. 

“The model – relying on exporting medium-innovation products to the US and China, powered by cheap energy and labour – is now a thing of the past. This shift comes amid a rapidly aging workforce and political stagnation.”

Robust industrial production and strong employment boosting Spanish growth

Coming to what is driving Spain’s economic rebound, Broyer said: “Spain’s outperformance is multifaceted. The post-pandemic normalisation of tourism is not the only reason for this. Industrial production is continuously expanding in Spain. Last year, consumer spending was the main driver of growth, adding one percentage point of a 2.5 percentage-point increase in Spain’s GDP. 

“Second-round effects on core inflation have also been more muted in Spain than in many other countries. Stronger employment growth, stimulated by labour market reforms aimed at replacing limited-term employment contracts with open-ended ones, is another explanation. 

“The dynamism in employment does not hinder productivity growth, in contrast to the other three major economies of the eurozone – Germany, France, and Italy. What’s more, Spanish households have deleveraged and are now no more indebted than their German counterparts, with a debt-to-income ratio of 85% versus 128% in 2012.”

Broyer further highlighted that Spanish households have also already made considerable changes to their mortgage financing, now leaning more towards fixed interest rates, rather than the previously preferred variable rates. 

In turn, this has also meant that they are now less vulnerable to changes in monetary policy than before. Savings rates for Spanish households have also returned to 2019 levels. 

However, other southern European countries like Italy are unlikely to do as well as Spain, according to Broyer, mainly because of the government’s ‘superbonus’ winding up, causing Italy to trail the rest of the eurozone. 

What could be the impact of the ECB cutting rates faster than expected?

S&P Global Ratings expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to now slash interest rates quicker than anticipated, mainly because of ongoing dampened confidence, as well as more data supporting disinflation progress. 

The main policy rate is expected to now touch 2.5% before next summer, significantly ahead of S&P’s previous forecast of September 2025. 

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Coming to how quicker rate cuts by the ECB might impact this outlook, Broyer said: “Faster rate cuts could help boost confidence, which remains surprisingly depressed despite the return of growth, disinflation and full employment. As a result, faster rate cuts would support the recovery in consumer spending and investment, which remain the mainstays of the European recovery.”

What impact will decisions on tariffs, spending and defence made by the EU and US have?

Broyer also said: “If EU and NATO members meet the NATO target of 2% military spending as a percentage of GDP per year, growth could improve by as much as 0.4%. The question is when.

“There is nothing positive about higher trade tariffs, for anyone. That said, Europe could be in for a lesser evil, if it suffers fewer tariff rises than China, Canada or Mexico, and if these are offset by a lasting appreciation of the dollar. 

“The real issue for Europe is what effect, and when, the measures put in place by the new administration will have on US and Chinese GDP. The US and China are our main two trading partners, absorbing 27% of EU exports.”

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Regarding the impact of higher tariffs on advanced and emerging economies, Marie Diron, the managing director of Global Sovereign Risk at Moody’s Ratings, also said in an email note: “Higher US tariffs could spark renewed inflationary pressures and monetary policy tightening, which would hurt US growth and its fiscal trajectory. 

“Advanced and emerging economies where exports are a key growth driver, such as Germany and Korea, would stand to lose the most from an escalation in trade tensions. 

“European economies deeply integrated in Germany’s supply chain would also be hit as a result. Some emerging markets will continue to benefit from the global reconfiguration in supply chains, although this will make it more difficult to allocate goods efficiently and will increase costs.”

Western European growth may rise to almost pre-pandemic levels in 2025

Moody’s Ratings also recently released their Global Sovereign Outlook 2025, outlining that, although sovereign credit fundamentals for next year are expected to be stable, the leeway to respond and adapt to unexpected shocks has lessened. 

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Government efforts to slash debt and meet economic goals are also likely to be hampered by tight budgets, ongoing geopolitical tensions and mounting social risks. 

However, growth is still expected to be resilient, helping governments focus more on some long-term objectives. 

Regarding the outlook for advanced European economies next year, Diron pointed out: “The credit outlook for advanced European economies is contrasted. 

“Growth will rise to close to pre-pandemic levels of around 1.5% across many parts of Western Europe including Austria, Netherlands and Switzerland thanks to a gradual recovery in manufacturing, supported by firmer global demand and easing policy. 

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“We expect only some moderation in growth in countries like Spain, where a strong labour market helped it outperform peers in recent years. However, while GDP growth will recover in Germany, it will remain hampered by structural challenges. Meanwhile, in the UK, limited fiscal room will curb the new government’s attempts to address more than a decade of weak productivity.”

Eastern Europe prospects

Coming to the outlook for Eastern European economies in 2025, Diron said: “Sovereigns in Eastern Europe also face contrasted credit conditions. GDP growth is moving towards trend rates, supported by EU funds. Deficits are narrowing gradually. 

“A number of sovereigns in the region are subject to the EU’s excessive deficit procedures which fosters fiscal consolidation. However, Hungary is at risk of not implementing the conditions necessary to obtain the full amount of EU funds it has, in principle, access to. In case of an EU funding shortfall, the economy and government’s finances could be negatively affected.

“Moreover, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine will continue to pose significant risks. Reduced US support for Ukraine might increase European (Western and Eastern) governments’ fiscal burdens as we expect governments to initially compensate for US support.”

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The dynamic Texas economy continues to add jobs across most industry sectors, though the pace has decreased somewhat of late. Given the slowing in the national economy and rising global uncertainty, it’s a positive signal that the state’s generally expansionary trend has been mostly sustained. The Perryman Group’s latest long-term forecast indicates that Texas is likely to continue to generate a substantial portion of the nation’s overall growth. There are certainly obstacles, but favorable patterns include demographics, energy, and emerging industries.

Population growth is stalling in many areas, contributing to ongoing workforce shortages, but is increasing in Texas due in part to in-migration from other states and countries (a phenomenon which is diminishing modestly in recent data). Numerous studies indicate that many of the individuals migrating to Texas are in prime working age ranges, with a substantial number of them possessing in-demand skills and training. These new residents are facilitating economic growth and generating opportunities which, in turn, can contribute to additional inflows. The state’s younger population is also a positive factor.

Texas oil and gas is crucial to meeting U.S. and global needs. The state’s production helps ensure energy security for the United States and our allies, particularly in times of geopolitical uncertainty. Simultaneously, this industry generates jobs and investment throughout the state. Forecasts from major public- and private-sector entities (including our projections) indicate that oil and gas will be crucial to meeting growing energy demand over a long-term horizon, and will continue to be an important aspect of the state’s economy. Texas is also a leader in many other forms of our diverse energy future, including wind, solar, and hydrogen (among others).

Texas is experiencing notable expansion in several industry groups which will enhance the long-term prospects for the state economy. In particular, the emergence of life sciences industries, investment banking and securities, and various aspects of technology (such as microchips, AI, data centers, and crypto mining) are spurring impressive gains in business activity.

The state also faces daunting challenges which will materially affect ultimate outcomes. A growing population and economy will require additional water, roadways, electricity (both generation and transmission), and investments in education (among other things). A critical imperative is ensuring that young people are provided with excellent learning opportunities. Texas is better positioned than many areas, but only if students are adequately prepared for the jobs of tomorrow.

The Perryman Group’s current long-term forecast indicates Texas should see economic growth at a faster pace than the nation. We’re projecting 1.64% annual employment growth through 2053, representing a gain of 9.1 million jobs. Business fluctuations are inevitable, but the economic outlook is decidedly positive, with numerous diverse sources contributing to ongoing expansion. Stay safe!

A quarter of openings among the top 20 “new economy” job types on Maimai this year through October were directly related to AI, the company revealed in a report published this week. Related roles include algorithm engineer, AI engineer, recommendation algorithm engineer, large language model (LLM) specialist, and natural language processing expert.

Cloud computing remains the tightest market, with a supply-demand ratio of 0.27, or roughly four job openings per qualified candidate. Search algorithms follow closely with a ratio of 0.39, or more than two openings per candidate.

AI has emerged as a bright spot in a bleak domestic job market in China’s “new economy”, a term used to describe high-growth sectors such as information technology, healthcare and renewable energy.

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Beijing hosts World Robot Conference as China eyes expanding humanoid robot market

Beijing hosts World Robot Conference as China eyes expanding humanoid robot market