Polls Indicate Trump Verdict Irrelevant in Upcoming Election


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Ever since the trial started for President Trump, the trending belief is that the verdict could have a major impact on the 2024 election.

At this point in the campaign, President Trump holds a small edge in both the national polling and public opinion survey for the major battleground states, despite being on trial in New York.

🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL: Harvard/Harris

🟥 Trump 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden 43%

With leans
🟥 Trump 53% (+6)
🟦 Biden 47%

🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 14%

May 15-16 | 1,660 RV | MoE: ±2.0%https://t.co/SIj9CohwsW pic.twitter.com/nWKTppTyqF

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 20, 2024

This trial could make history, should Trump be convicted of the felony charges, he would be the first in the nation’s history for a former or current president.

Despite this looming pressure, recent polls indicate the impending verdict could have very little impact on the upcoming election.

Fox News adds quotes from both Democratic and Republican pollsters:

Veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson told Fox News that he did not think “a guilty verdict would fundamentally change the landscape of the race.” Longtime Republican pollster Neil Newhouse went even further, arguing that a Trump conviction “is unlikely to make any difference.”

Both pointed to the fact that “attitudes are so set in concrete” regarding both the Republican former president and his Democratic successor in the White House.

Will the outcome of the current trial in NYC impact how voters view Trump? According to partner Neil Newhouse (@KCkid) it will not. “People have already come to judgment on the guy. There’s not much new they are going to learn that will change their impressions of him.” If you…

— POS (@POStrategies) May 23, 2024

The story then goes on to provide more information about recent polls regarding what a guilty verdict could mean for President Trump:

A handful of recent national polls suggest the answer is not really.

Among them, 62% of registered voters questioned in a Quinnipiac University survey said a guilty verdict would make no difference to their vote for president. Fifteen percent said it would make them more likely to cast a ballot for Trump, and 21% said it would make them less likely to vote for the former president.

Additionally, eight out of 10 Trump supporters surveyed in an ABC News/Ipsos national poll said they would still back the presumptive GOP presidential nominee if he was found guilty in court. Sixteen percent said they would reconsider their support, and 4% said they would no longer back Trump.

It’s no secret that Biden has been doing an awful job in the office, and the people are ready for President Trump to take back the reigns.

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