There has been a shift in the top three candidates for the 2024 election according to the betting odds in July. Robert Kennedy Jr. has now risen to be the third favorite, as indicated by OddsChecker.
Previously in June, the odds for RFK Jr. were at +1900. As of now, they have improved to +1200, which positions him ahead of Gov. Ron DeSantis who had been occupying the third spot for several months.
With odds at +200, Joe Biden leads the pack, followed by Trump at +270. These odds suggest that Biden and Trump have approximately 34 percent and 26 percent chance of victory, respectively.
The odds for the remaining contenders are as follows:
RFK Jr., arguably the most distinctive candidate in the contest, is gathering momentum. He’s a renegade, with his vaccine opposition and defiance of authority causing a rift with the Democratic Party, of which he’s a member.
However, dislodging a sitting president as a candidate would likely necessitate some support from his party, a favor that RFK Jr. is unlikely to receive.
In this context, it appears that Gavin Newsom might offer the most value for a speculative bet, presenting long odds with a potentially high payoff.
Joe Biden is exhibiting signs of cognitive deterioration. His problematic presidency, marked by questionable handling of the economy, border issues, and social tensions, offers ample ammunition for the eventual GOP candidate to capitalize on.
Biden’s denial of his seventh grandchild also raises questions about his character.
The Democratic Party was not initially keen on Biden. It was only when faced with a choice between Biden and Bernie Sanders in 2020 that the party rallied behind him. Previously, the party had wished for either Kamala Harris, Liz Warren, or Pete Buttigieg to clinch the nomination.
Only the lack of a strong, electable alternative has prevented the Democrats from attempting to replace Biden. Thus, if they find Newsom to be an acceptable candidate, he could be their pick. If not, it’s likely we’ll see Biden returning as the top candidate.
When it comes to the GOP, Trump is the clear favorite. He’s been leading the pack even before he officially announced his candidacy.
Trump’s victory in 2016 as a political outsider was largely fueled by societal frustration with the established order. Such sentiments could potentially be even more intensified come 2024.
DeSantis sits at +1750, which may be low considering the amount of support he has from influential conservatives. While his campaign has not gotten off to the start he hoped, his success in Florida is undeniable among the Republican Party and it is certainly premature to rule him out.
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