Just days before the apparent second attempted assassination of Donald Trump, Colin Clarke gathered in New York with experts for a global summit on counterterrorism and political violence.

Clarke, director of research at a security and intelligence consulting firm called the Soufan Group, said a feeling of dread was shared even then.

“There’s a real sense of urgency and concern that we are going to see more political violence surrounding this upcoming election,” he said.

This weekend’s events have only compounded that sense of foreboding.

On Sunday, 58-year-old Ryan Routh allegedly tried to assassinate the former president while he was golfing at his Florida club. Routh appeared in federal court on Monday, but so far, law enforcement authorities have not disclosed a known motive behind the episode. Nonetheless, the incident has intensified concerns over the growth of political violence in the U.S., and the likelihood of it worsening in the remaining weeks before the election.

“I’m very pessimistic about where we’re heading in the lead-up to November,” said Clarke.

Uptick in political violence

The U.S. has a long history of political violence, but multiple sources suggest that the scope and frequency of political harassment, threats and violence are reaching new levels. Gary LaFree, a criminology professor at the University of Maryland and former director of the UMD National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START Center), said that the center’s data indicate that the trend began almost a decade ago.

One database, which tracks incidents of terrorism across the globe, shows that the 1970s were a high water mark for political violence in the U.S. A wide range of groups committed criminal acts in attempts to coerce policy change or instill mass fear, including activists for Puerto Rican independence, domestic terrorists like the Ku Klux Klan, anti-Vietnam war agitators and the far-right, militant Jewish Defense League. But the numbers fell sharply in decades following.

“We had some years where we didn’t have a single case that qualified for our database as terrorism in the United States in the 2000s,” said LaFree. “And then we start to see this uptick in about 2015, 2016.”

LaFree said there’s a notable difference in the ideology underpinning attacks in the 1970s versus during the last decade.

“Back in the ’70s, most of the action was coming from leftist groups,” he said. “The big players right now are right-wing groups, actually.”

Everyday political violence

Beyond incidents that qualify as terroristic, however, there is a growing sense that everyday political violence has been on the rise. For two years, the Bridging Divides Initiative and CivicPulse have conducted quarterly surveys of local elected officials to assess the level of harassment, threats and violence they experience. It has found baseline levels of hostility against these officials to be consistently high.

“It’s part of the larger atmospherics that we have in this country, where nearly anything you do could be perceived as having some kind of political connection, no matter the kind of position you may have,” said Jason Blazakis, director of the Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.

Blazakis said this development, in which everyday Americans find themselves in the crosshairs of the so-called “culture wars” that animate political rivalry, is part of a dangerous stew.

“Those atmospherics, coupled with the election polarization driven by the rise of conspiracy theories, mis- and disinformation, and then the global political scene… is making for a really dangerous situation,” he said. “And then you add to that sort of recipe our gun culture and the easy access people have to guns.”

Stoking the flames

Among the most concerning aspects of this growth in political violence is the role that high-profile figures have played in amplifying conspiracy theories and lies. In the days following the nationally televised debate between Trump and Vice President Harris, in which the former president parroted debunked narratives about immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, bomb threats against city facilities and schools followed, and Haitian immigrants have reported feeling unsafe.

After Sunday’s apparent attempted assassination of Trump, Elon Musk published and then deleted a post on X, the social media platform that he owns, that some took to be a call for assassination attempts against Harris and President Biden. Musk has claimed that the post was meant as a joke.

In the counterterrorism world, Blazakis said that these kinds of statements from influential figures can have real-world consequences — something known as “stochastic” terrorism.

“Stochastic terrorism isn’t necessarily a kind of terrorism that might be necessarily motivated by a certain strain or ideology, but instigated by the rhetoric of individuals being inspired to carry out, for instance, attacks based on the dog whistles of somebody who might be a charismatic leader,” said Blazakis.

Clarke said stochastic terrorism, however, is complex, because those who peddle conspiracy theories and incendiary narratives often deny any relation to violence that may follow.

“The almost egging on or kind of walking right up to the line and kind of pushing supporters right into that kind of mindset, that engaging in any type of violence is actually noble in some ways,” said Clarke. “But then when people are questioned, they easily back away and say, ‘Oh, no, no, that was merely, you know, heated rhetoric.’ Or, ‘I was trying to mimic what the other side was saying about me.’ No one ever takes responsibility for this, but words we know have consequences, especially when people are riled up.”

Concern about the weeks to come

So far, there has been little evidence that Trump’s campaign and other influential voices on the right are backing away from public statements that deepen division and grievance. On Tuesday, Trump again reiterated the lie that Democrats cheated in the 2020 election and vowed to prosecute individuals “to the fullest extent of the Law” for their alleged role if he returns to the White House.

To experts like Blazakis, there is concern that efforts to curb acts of political violence will largely fall entirely to the law enforcement apparatus to detect and prevent.

“What I’m most concerned about is individuals taking inspiration from these last two assassination attempts and to try to be copycats,” said Blazakis. “At the same time, I think the rhetoric from our politicians is only going to become more heated, and that might also trigger individuals to become inspired to carry out some kind of act of violence.”

Stopping such attacks before they occur, however, has become a more difficult task, said Clarke. He said he doesn’t see organized paramilitary groups or people posting prominently online as the major concern here.

“I’m more concerned about the silent militia types that have their guns that are, you know, very pro-2A,” he said, referencing the Second Amendment. “The people that aren’t out there running their mouths. To me, those are the [Oklahoma City bomber] Tim McVeighs of the world and those are the people that are really serious and can really cause real harm in this country if they want to.”

A double-digit increase in popularity, rising Democratic enthusiasm and an early edge for representing “change” have vaulted Vice President Kamala Harris forward and reshuffled the 2024 presidential contest, according to a new national NBC News poll.

With just over six weeks until Election Day, the poll finds Harris with a 5-point lead over former President Donald Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. While that result is within the margin of error, it’s a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.

But the transformation in the presidential contest goes well beyond the horse race. For starters, Harris’ favorability has jumped 16 points since July, the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush’s standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.Harris also holds the advantage over Trump on being seen as competent and effective, as well as on having the mental and physical health to be president — a reversal from Trump’s leads on those qualities when he was matched up against Biden.

And in a contest between a sitting vice president and an ex-president, featuring an electorate that overwhelmingly thinks the U.S. is “on the wrong track,” Harris has the upper hand on which candidate better represents change and which candidate can get the country headed in the right direction.

“In July, there was a stiff breeze heading directly at President Biden and obscuring a clear path to victory. Today, the winds have turned in Kamala Harris’ favor,” said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, the Democratic pollster who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies.

Still, Trump holds important advantages on the economy and inflation, although those leads are smaller than they were when Biden was still in the contest. Two-thirds of voters say their family income is falling behind the cost of living, and voters ranked the cost of living as their top concern in the election.

What’s more, the poll shows that some of Trump’s erosion has come from Republicans who aren’t die-hard supporters of the former president — but who could come back home to him, like they did in 2016 and 2020.

“We have seen this movie before,” said McInturff. “They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back and they vote the way they’re going to vote on a Republican-versus-Democrat preference for Congress.”

Overall, the 2024 presidential race looks a lot like it did four years ago, both pollsters agree, with the Democratic nominee more popular than the Republican candidate, the electorate still deeply polarized, and the final result unclear.

“All of this movement to Harris essentially returns the race to where it was in 2020 at the end of the campaign: a very close election,” Horwitt said.

This brand-new NBC News poll, conducted Sept. 13-17, comes after a momentous two months in American politics, including Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race on July 21, two party conventions, two vice-presidential selections, an assassination attempt on Trump in July and another apparent attempt two months later, and the first (and perhaps only) debate between Trump and Harris.In the first NBC News poll since those events, Harris gets support from 49% of registered voters in the head-to-head test against Trump, who gets 44%. Another 7% either pick another candidate, say they’re unsure or say they won’t vote.

In an expanded ballot with third-party candidates, Harris leads Trump by 6 points, 47% to 41% — with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 2%, Jill Stein at 2% and Libertarian Chase Oliver at 1%. (Respondents were only able to pick from the major third-party candidates who will actually appear on the ballot in their states.)

Both ways of testing the race represent a change from July’s poll, when Trump was narrowly ahead of Biden by 2 points on the head-to-head ballot test and by 3 points on the expanded ballot test. The September results are the Democratic ticket’s best performance in the poll since the summer of 2023.

In the current head-to-head matchup, Harris holds the advantage among Black voters (85%-7%), voters ages 18-34 (57%-34%), women (58%-37%), white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%).

All of these advantages are larger for Harris than Biden had enjoyed when he was still in the race, except among independents, where Harris’ 8-point edge is almost identical to Biden’s advantage in July.

(RELATED: See here for more on how the race has changed since Biden’s exit.)

Trump, meanwhile, is ahead among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%).

Seventy-one percent of all voters say their minds are made up, while 11% say they might change their vote — a shift from April, when 26% said they could still change their mind.

Harris leads on abortion, fitness and change; Trump is ahead on the key issues of the border and inflation

The NBC News poll also tests Harris and Trump on 13 different issues and presidential qualities.

Harris’ best results are on protecting immigrant rights (where she has a 28-point lead over Trump), abortion (+21 points), having the necessary mental and physical health to be president (+20 points), having the right temperament to be president (+16 points) and representing change (+9 points).

By comparison, Trump’s biggest leads are on securing the border (+21), the economy (+9) and dealing with the cost of living (+8).

Those current Trump advantages, however, are all down from when Biden was still in the race. When NBC News put those questions to voters about Trump and Biden in January, Trump led the president by 35 points on the issue of securing the border and controlling immigration and by 22 points on dealing with the economy.In April, voters gave Trump a 22-point edge over Biden on dealing with inflation and the cost of living, too.

A historic jump in Harris’ popularity

Beyond those issues and qualities, what also stands out in the poll is Harris’ increased popularity since her elevation to the top of the Democratic ticket.

In July, 32% of registered voters had a positive view of Harris, versus 50% who saw her in a negative light (-18 net rating) — almost identical to Biden’s rating.

But in this new poll, Harris is now at 48% positive, 45% negative (+3).

No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen this kind of jump in popularity in an election.

And the only increases that are greater than Harris’ in successive NBC News polls are George W. Bush’s leap after 9/11 (when his positive number increased nearly 30 points); then-President George H.W. Bush’s jump in popularity after the first Gulf War (when his positive number increased by 24 points); and independent Ross Perot, who got a 23-point jump when he re-entered the 1992 presidential race after previously dropping out.By contrast, Trump’s net rating in the new poll is essentially unchanged from July — 40% positive, 53% negative (-13).

Despite that improvement for Harris, the poll contains warning signs for Democrats. For one thing, inflation and the cost of living remain voters’ top issue. And 66% of voters say their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living.

In addition, while Harris leads Trump on “change,” a separate question shows a potential vulnerability in being tied to Biden’s presidency: 40% of voters say they’re more concerned that Harris will continue the same approach as Biden.

That’s compared with 39% who are more concerned that Trump will continue the same approach as his first term as president; 18% say neither is a concern.

Meanwhile, 65% of voters say the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 28% who say it’s heading in the right direction. Though the wrong-track percentage is smaller than it’s been during most of the Biden-Harris administration, the sour outlook closely mirrors how voters saw things when they decided to change the party in the White House in 2016 and 2020.

And while the share of Democrats expressing high interest in the election — registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale — has increased since July, young voters remain at a low level of interest compared to recent presidential elections.

Other poll findings

On the recent debate between Harris and Trump, 29% said the Sept. 10 showdown made them more likely to support Harris, versus 12% who said it made them more likely to back Trump; 57% said it made no difference.

In the battle for control of Congress, 48% of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 46% who want Republicans in charge. (That’s essentially unchanged from July, when it was 47% Democratic, 46% Republican.)

And on Project 2025 — the conservative policy blueprint with ties to former Trump administration officials, which Democrats have featured in their campaign — a whopping 57% of voters have a negative view of it, versus just 4% who see it in a positive light.

The national NBC News poll was conducted Sept. 13-17 of 1,000 registered voters — 870 of whom were reached via cellphone — and it has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Assembly Elections 2024; Maharashtra Election, Jharkhand Election: In the single-phase assembly elections, Maharashtra received 45.53 per cent voter turnout till 3:00 pm on November 20, 2024, as polling was underway in all 288 assembly constituencies of the state, according to the Election Commission of India.

Meanwhile, in Jharkhand (38 assembly seats), the second phase of the voting recorded 61.47 per cent voter turnout till the period.

Gadchiroli district in Maharashtra recorded the highest voter turnout at 62.99 per cent as of the latest update. In contrast, Mumbai city registered the lowest turnout at 27.73 per cent in the aforesaid time.

Here’s how Maharashtra’s major district and assembly seats voter turnout fared:

• Armori: 60.50 per cent
• Mumbai city: 40.89 per cent
• Mumbai suburban: 39.34 per cent
• Colaba: 33.44 per cent
• Mahim: 45.56 per cent
• Worli: 39.11 per cent
• Shivadi: 41.76 per cent
• Malabar Hill: 42.55 per cent

Pakur district from Jharkhand recorded the highest turnout of 69.31 per cent, while Dhanbad stands at the lowest turnout of 56.32 per cent.

Here is a summary of voter turnout data from some of the key districts to track in Jharkhand:

• Ranchi: 65.84 per cent
• Ramgarh: 66.02 per cent
• Dumka: 64.79 per cent
• Deoghar: 64.55 per cent
• Godda: 62.91 per cent
• Sahebganj: 60.08 per cent
• Hazaribag: 58.16 per cent
• Bokaro: 56.38 per cent
• Jamtara: 68.24 per cent

Senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis will be sworn in as the chief minister of Maharashtra on Thursday, sources said.

His name was finalised in the BJP’s core committee meeting held here on Wednesday before its Maharashtra legislature party meet, they said.

Union minister Nirmala Sitharaman, former Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani and Fadnavis were present in the BJP’s core committee meet.

The BJP has appointed Sitharaman and Rupani as central observers for its Maharashtra legislature party’s meeting.

Ahead of the legislature party meet, BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar said the Mahayuti partners will meet Governor C P Radhakrishnan at 3.30 pm on Wednesday to stake a claim to form a government in the state.

The BJP achieved remarkable success in the November 20 Maharashtra elections, securing 132 out of the 288 assembly seats in the state, marking its best performance in the state so far.

Together with its allies — the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s NCP, the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has a commanding majority of 230 seats.

Devendra Fadnavis will be sworn in as Maharashtra Chief Minister (CM) today at 5 PM for the third time in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi,. Governor C P Radhakrishnan invited him to form the new government in the state. 

Besides, two deputy chief ministers will also be sworn in today, December 5. These include Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

Fadnavis said that he met Eknath Shinde on Tuesday and urged him to be part of the government.

“I am sure that he (Shinde) will accept my request. Similar appeals have been made by the Shiv Sena legislators. During two and half years, we Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar and myself together took decisions for Maharashtra’s development. We will decide by late evening how many ministers will take oath tomorrow,” Fadnavis said.

“I am thankful to the PM for giving me an opportunity to serve the state. I also thank Home Minister Amit Shah, party president J.P. Nadda and Union Minister Ramdas Athavale for their support,” added Fadnavis.

Devendra Fadnavis to take oath today: Venue

A grand oath ceremony will take place at Mumbai’s Azad Maidan. There will be around 40,000 attendees and 2,000 VIPs.

A look at the guest list

Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Union Home Minister Amit Shah
Union ministers 
CMs/Deputy CMs of NDA-ruled states
Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and other major political leaders of the state 
Leading industrialists, including Mukesh Ambani
Former Maharashtra CMs
More than 100 spiritual leaders
Renowned personalities from Marathi and Hindi film industries
Famous personalities from academics and literature
BJP, NCP and Shiv Sena workers

Police issues traffic advisory

In view of the swearing-in ceremony at Azad Maidan Ground on 05/12/2024, a large number of people are expected to attend the function.

To ease vehicular movement, following traffic arrangement will be in place on 05/12/2024 from 12.00 pm till end of the program. pic.twitter.com/cuVjk1GQF3

— Mumbai Traffic Police (@MTPHereToHelp) December 4, 2024

Mumbai Police has increased security measures, and numerous roads will be closed or diverted to regulate traffic flow in the vicinity. The Mumbai Police Traffic Advisory will be in force from 12 PM on December 5 until the end of the event.

Since there are no parking facilities at Azad Maiden Ground, people are requested to use Public traffic arrangement (Specially Train/ Local Trains),” said Mumbai Police.