Political pollster Frank Luntz stated on Friday that former President Donald Trump’s decision to pick Ohio Republican Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate could end up being crucial to winning the general election this coming November. Trump announced his pick for a running mate on the very first day of the Republican National Convention from the RNC. Since then, Trump has made it a point to highlight Sen. Vance’s dedication to “fight for the worker.”

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Luntz, on “Inside Politics,” said Vance appeals to “paycheck to paycheck voters,” who he described as “the most important segment of the population” for the election after CNN host Phil Mattingly asked if he thinks Vance was “a mistake” for Trump.

‘He’s Credible’: Pollster Frank Luntz Dumps Cold Water On Claims JD Vance Was Bad VP Choice For Trump pic.twitter.com/9QixciArhg

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 26, 2024

“He chose to double down. And J.D. Vance comes from the background that Trump’s focusing on, so he’s credible. And he’s got the language because this is how he grew up,” Luntz stated during his appearance on the program. “To me, the most important segment of the population, the one that makes or breaks, are these paycheck to paycheck voters, people who have jobs, they’ve been working, they may not be college graduates and they’re struggling. And it represents one-fourth of the American electorate. Normally, they vote Democrat over Republican by about two to one. Trump brought it to three to two, even closer. That segment, if they break for Harris, she’s the next president. If Trump can keep them, he’s the next president.”

There have been a few different articles that have been cited by folks on the right and various political scientists who have said that Trump choosing Vance to be his vice president was a big mistake.

On Thursday, Democratic strategist James Carville said that he thinks that Trump is already unhappy with choosing Vance, before going on to say that he often fantasizes gleefully about Trump’s rage, particularly as it is directed at his son.

“I have to tell you, I take unbelievable pleasure in his misery,” Carville remarked during his podcast. “I fantasize about how he’s throwing shit at walls and ketchups and plates. And screaming at Don Jr. and screaming at everybody. It makes me feel so good. It’s a certain amount of peace that I get.”

One of the reasons there is currently so much turmoil surrounding the former president choosing the Ohio Republican as his vice presidential running mate is due to comments Vance made against Trump prior to his presidency in 2016, when he was running for the Senate. The senator referred to himself as a “never-Trump guy,” however, he said his views toward the former president changed as he watched him fulfill many of his campaign promises and stand on conservative values.

This ultimately led to Vance supporting and voting for Trump in 2020. Vance put out a public apology for the comments he made about Trump back in 2021 and has since discussed the reasons for his change of heart toward him and his policy platform.

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Following the historic debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, renowned pollster Frank Luntz reported a significant shift in voter sentiment among undecided swing-state residents. The debate, aired on CNN, marked the first time a sitting president and his predecessor squared off, offering a unique spectacle that captivated the nation.

According to Luntz, the majority of his focus group, comprised of undecided voters from critical swing states, tilted overwhelmingly toward Trump after the debate. “In my entire professional career, I’ve done 32 debates. Never has someone performed [like Biden last night]. And I was very upset with Donald Trump in 2020. I have never seen a performance like I saw last night,” said Luntz.

“We’ve never had that before. We are truly in uncharted territory. And what blew me away the most was that Joe Biden voters in 2020 don’t want him on the ticket in 2024. What is the reaction you had [from] 14 swing voters from these states? All undecided, all voting Republican and Democrat back and forth over the last 10 years. And boy, did they swing,” Luntz added.

One participant from the focus group remarked, “He does not have the leadership qualities to survive for the next four years. I don’t even know how he’s going to survive the next few months. They need a candidate that could beat Trump.” Another member reflected on their past support for Biden, stating, “I just think if the Democrats want to have a chance at putting someone in the White House, they need to put someone else up.”

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“I think in 2020, Biden was a safe option that was relatively non-harmful to replace Trump,” another said. “And frankly, I didn’t think it reflected these same cognitive issues that we see tonight on the campaign. Yeah, it was a little dry, but it was definitely not to the same extent. I think tonight, I’m not sure how he functions during an eight-hour workday, let alone an eight-plus-hour workday.”

The reaction from the focus group was a telling moment in Biden’s campaign, as voices within the Democratic Party began to question whether he should lead the ticket in the next election. Biden, at 81, appeared visibly challenged throughout the debate, struggling with vocal clarity and consistency. The debate and its aftermath could prove to be a critical juncture for the Democratic Party. In 2020, Biden was viewed as a safe, stabilizing choice over Trump, but the recent visibility of his cognitive struggles has stirred doubts among previously supportive voters.

67% of registered voters who tuned in to Thursday’s face-off between Biden and Trump believe Trump delivered the superior performance, a CNN flash poll by SSRS revealed. This marked a shift from expectations set before the debate, where 55% anticipated Trump would outshine Biden, who only garnered 45% of pre-debate confidence.

The debate has triggered a crisis within the Democratic Party. With party rules making it nearly impossible to replace a nominee at this stage without the candidate’s withdrawal, last night exposed the precarious position of the Democrats as they head into a critical election cycle. As the fallout from the debate continues to unfold, the party faces tough decisions about its strategy and leadership moving forward. With swing-state voters shifting allegiance after the debate, the pressure intensifies to reassess not just campaign tactics but also the viability of its presidential nominee.

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Prominent pollster Frank Luntz has issued a warning to Democrats about the potential for Donald Trump to win Minnesota, a state that has long been a Democratic stronghold. Luntz’s observations come as Trump continues to defy conventional political wisdom, even in the face of significant legal challenges.

“To me, it’s not that Donald Trump is winning so big in Iowa. That’s not the story. It’s that he’s making it close in Minnesota,” Luntz said. “Minnesota is a reliable Democratic state. It votes Democrat in every presidential campaign. In poll after poll, I see Trump within two or three points in Minnesota.”

Traditionally, Minnesota has been a safe bet for Democratic candidates, consistently voting blue in presidential elections. However, Luntz’s data indicates that Trump is within striking distance, raising concerns for Democrats who might have considered the state a secure part of their electoral strategy.

“I don’t think the media understands exactly what’s going on right now,” Luntz continued. “Yes, Trump dropped a few points after being found guilty on 34 felony counts. But remember this, that would have destroyed any candidate as recently as 10 years ago. And the fact that Donald Trump is still even with, or in some cases leading Joe Biden after being found guilty of 34 felonies. Oh my God, that is so significant.”

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Luntz’s comments define the resilience of Trump’s support base. Despite the legal hurdles and ongoing controversies, Trump’s appeal remains strong among a significant portion of the electorate. Trump was convicted by a jury in New York last month on 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to influence the 2016 presidential election. The conviction represented the first time in the nation’s history that a former president has been found guilty of a crime. Despite this, Trump’s political influence and ability to galvanize support remain remarkably robust.

“And one more point, I’m watching the independent vote. I don’t believe that they’re swinging back and forth between Trump and Biden. I think that they decided that they hate both candidates. They hate both parties and they’re voting out of anger, out of desperation, out of resentment,” Luntz said. “So be very careful in how you analyze what goes on from now through the debates, through the election, because I think there could be a hidden anger vote that surprises everyone on election day.”

A “hidden anger vote” could be a crucial factor in the upcoming election. Independent voters, disillusioned with both major parties, might cast their ballots out of frustration, potentially altering the expected outcomes in key states like Minnesota.

Biden and Trump are set for an unprecedented early debate next Thursday, months before the typical election season confrontations. The novel June face-off will not be orchestrated by the traditional Commission on Presidential Debates but rather by CNN.

On Monday, the Biden campaign launched a hard-hitting ad targeting battleground states, labeling the presumptive Republican nominee as a self-serving felon. The bold move seemed to settle an internal debate among Democrats regarding how prominently to feature Trump’s legal troubles in their tightly contested race for the White House come November.

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