OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
A new survey has found that Donald Trump is essentially tied with President Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 election despite all of the former president’s legal problems and even though most respondents believe he committed serious crimes.
While 51 percent of respondents in the New York Times/Siena College survey believe that Trump violated some laws, he is tied with Biden at 43 percent.
That said, 53 percent of those polled think that Trump’s actions after the 2020 election “went so far that he threatened American democracy,” Axios reported, citing the survey.
In the same survey, 43 percent said they have a favorable view of Biden, while 41 percent said the same for the former president.
“In the hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, 14% of voters did not prefer either candidate, with 10% saying they would either vote for another candidate or they are not going to vote if they are the two choices,” Axios noted.
According to the Times’ chief political analyst Nate Cohn, Trump’s diehard base supports his gripes against Biden’s Justice Department going after him as he rises in the polls — and as the current president and his son continue to escape federal scrutiny over mounting allegations of corruption including accepting a bribe as vice president.
“Zero percent — not a single one of the 319 respondents in this MAGA category — said Trump had committed serious federal crimes,” said Cohn, according to Axios.
The Times/Siena survey found that Biden’s support had improved somewhat among Democratic voters. Last year, some 64 percent said they wanted someone else to lead the party next year, with the No. 1 reason being his age. He’d be 86 at the end of a second term, and he’s already showing significant signs of aging, many believe.
That said, the poll found Biden’s approval rating a dismal 39 percent.
The survey found that Trump received 54% of the support from GOP primary voters, while Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis came in second with just 17% of the vote.
Trump not only maintains significant influence within the Republican Party but, according to a recent report, he is also dominating the early primary race in a manner unparalleled in modern history.
Polling experts who spoke to The Daily Caller claimed that Trump’s commanding lead in most surveys is so overwhelming that it must be disheartening for the rest of the GOP contenders.
The outlet noted that the current Republican primary cycle is unlike any other, with a former president leading the race, holding a substantial advantage in the polls, and facing competition from his former vice president. Additionally, Trump carries the weight of two federal indictments.
Polling analysts interviewed by the DC emphasized the significant contrast between this current GOP primary season and previous cycles, arguing that it is challenging to draw direct comparisons in recent memory.
“This GOP primary is truly unprecedented because Trump is not technically an incumbent, but Republican voters seem to be treating him as at least a quasi-incumbent,” Kyle Kondik, a polling analyst and managing editor for the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the outlet.
Kondik noted further that Trump’s legal challenges have also revealed a “unique” aspect to the current primary season. His indictments could eventually generate “fatigue” within GOP voting ranks resulting in polling declines, but the expert added that he doesn’t see that happening currently.
Jon McHenry, a vice president at North Star Opinion Research and a GOP polling analyst, underscored the extraordinary nature of the Republican primary by emphasizing that Trump’s impact on reshaping the party, coupled with his indictments, has played a substantial role in the former president’s impressive standing in the polls.
“This really is a unique cycle, at least since we’ve used primaries and caucuses as the primary vehicle to nominate our presidential candidates. In that time, we haven’t had an incumbent president lose re-election and run again, much less lead in the polls,” McHenry told the outlet.